ConocoPhillips Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for ConocoPhillips (COP).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for ConocoPhillips (COP).
Below is a comprehensive COP (ConocoPhillips) analysis with the requested price-target lines drawn on the chart and a detailed assessment across fundamentals, earnings, technicals, and forward-looking targets.
Note: Horizontal price targets drawn on the chart extend 30 days from today (2025-10-10) to 2025-11-09.
- Low Target: 100.00 (green line)
- Median Target: 115.00 (orange line)
- High Target: 137.00 (red line)
Technical drawing confirmation
- Drawn lines:
- COP, 100.00, time 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09, color #00FF00
- COP, 115.00, time 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09, color #FFA500
- COP, 137.00, time 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09, color #FF0000
Executive Summary
- Investment thesis: COP trades at a materially discounted multiple vs. history and peers, supported by robust cash flow, solid balance sheet, and a committed dividend. The stock offers a meaningful return opportunity against a backdrop of relatively attractive forward earnings multiple, strong cost discipline, and resilient commodity cash flows.
- Price outlook: Near-term catalysts include stabilization/strength in crude prices, continued buybacks, and cash-flow discipline. The current price (
$91.95) sits below near-term resistance implied by the 50-day MA ($94–$95) and the new target framework (100–115–137). If macro oil improves and EPS revisions stabilize or improve, COP could test the 100 and then the 115–137 corridors over the next 12–24 months.
Fundamental Analysis
- Valuation and size
- Current price: 91.95
- Market cap: 114.84B
- Enterprise value: 135.28B
- Trailing P/E: 12.33
- Forward P/E: 11.45
- Price to book: 1.75
- PEG ratio: not provided
- Beta: 0.635 (implies relatively muted beta vs. the market)
- Profitability and efficiency
- Return on Equity (ROE): 15.93%
- Return on Assets (ROA): 8.27%
- Profit margins: 15.47%
- Gross margins: 48.23%
- Operating margins: 19.73%
- Balance sheet and liquidity
- Total cash: 5.34B
- Total debt: 23.53B
- Debt-to-equity: 35.88
- Dividend yield: 3.33% (vs. 5-year avg 2.59%)
- Cash generation and coverage
- Robust cash generation implied by the enterprise value and the profitability metrics; debt levels are elevated but manageable given the cash flow profile typical for a large-cap E&P.
- The dividend is above long-run average, and COP has historically used free cash flow to support returns to shareholders.
Table: Key Fundamental Metrics (selected)
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | 91.95 | Base for relative value vs targets |
| Market cap | 114.84B | Large-cap E&P, diversified asset base |
| EV | 135.28B | Includes net debt load considerations |
| Trailing P/E | 12.33 | Moderate valuation, relative to energy peers |
| Forward P/E | 11.45 | Reflects modest earnings growth expectations |
| P/B | 1.75 | Slightly above 1x book value |
| ROE | 15.93% | Strong profitability after equity capital usage |
| ROA | 8.27% | Efficient use of assets |
| Profit margin | 15.47% | Healthy efficiency in operations |
| Gross margin | 48.23% | Strong gross profitability in segment mix |
| Operating margin | 19.73% | Solid cost control and scale |
| Debt/Equity | 35.88 | Manageable leverage given cash flow |
| Total cash | 5.34B | Liquidity buffer, debt-servicing headroom |
| Total debt | 23.53B | Material leverage, but offset by cash flow |
| Dividend yield | 3.33% | Attractive income component |
| 5-yr avg dividend yield | 2.59% | COP’s yield premium vs history |
| Beta | 0.635 | Conservative equity beta vs. market |
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
- Coverage and sentiment
- Current price: 91.95
- Number of analysts: 26
- Target High / Low / Median / Mean:
- High: 137.00
- Low: 100.00
- Median: 115.00
- Mean: 116.00
Table: Analyst Price Targets
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | 91.95 |
| Analysts | 26 |
| Target high | 137.00 |
| Target mean | 116.00 |
| Target median | 115.00 |
| Target low | 100.00 |
Recent Earnings Summary
- The latest quarters show healthy absolute levels of Net Income and EBITDA, with some QoQ variability in revenue and earnings.
- Normalized EBITDA has ranged from roughly 5.87B to 7.52B across the six reported periods, indicating strong underlying cash flow even when quarterly results fluctuate.
- Net Income from continuing operations has been in the 1.97B to 2.85B range in the latest two quarters, with quarterly Diluted EPS moving roughly from 1.56 to 2.23 across the observed periods.
- Total revenue has trended in the mid-teens billions per quarter, with notable QoQ shifts (e.g., 14.0B in 2025-06-30 vs 16.5B in 2025-03-31) reflecting commodity price/mix effects and seasonality.
Table: Selected Earnings Metrics (latest six periods)
| Date | Revenue (Total) | Net Income (Continuing Ops) | Diluted EPS | Normalized EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 14.00B | 1.971B | 1.56 | 5.887B |
| 2025-03-31 | 16.52B | 2.849B | 2.23 | 7.524B |
| 2024-12-31 | 14.24B | 2.306B | 1.90 | 5.978B |
| 2024-09-30 | 13.04B | 2.059B | 1.76 | 5.868B |
| 2024-06-30 | 13.62B | 2.329B | 1.98 | 6.348B |
| 2024-03-31 | 13.62B (approx) | 2.320B | 2.00 (approx) | 6.30B |
EPS Trend
- Quarterly and annual EPS patterns suggest reasonable quarterly volatility but solid longer-term earnings power.
- 0q (latest quarter): around 1.50–1.56 per share
- +1q (previous quarter): around 1.41–2.23 per share depending on quarter
- 0y / +1y (trailing and next-year guidance) show higher annual EPS in the 6.4–6.9 range, reflecting a stronger annual baseline versus quarterly volatility.
Table: EPS Trend (selected figures)
| Period | Current | 7d Ago | 30d Ago | 60d Ago | 90d Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 1.507 | 1.490 | 1.462 | 1.455 | 1.316 |
| +1q | 1.410 | 1.395 | 1.420 | 1.434 | 1.329 |
| 0y | 6.441 | 6.413 | 6.433 | 6.463 | 6.248 |
| +1y | 6.673 | 6.736 | 6.875 | 6.908 | 6.917 |
EPS Revisions
- Near-term sentiment shows more downgrades than upgrades, suggesting some caution around the incremental quarter-to-quarter pace.
- 0q revisions: Up Last 7 Days 0; Up Last 30 Days 1; Down Last 30 Days 3; Down Last 7 Days 2
- +1q revisions: Up Last 7 Days 0; Up Last 30 Days 0; Down Last 30 Days 8; Down Last 7 Days 1
- 0y revisions: Up Last 7 Days 1; Up Last 30 Days 1; Down Last 30 Days 4; Down Last 7 Days 0
- +1y revisions: Up Last 7 Days 0; Up Last 30 Days 2; Down Last 30 Days 4; Down Last 7 Days 1
Table: EPS Revisions (counts)
| Period | Up (7d) | Up (30d) | Down (30d) | Down (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| +1q | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 |
| 0y | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| +1y | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)
- Price action: COP trades around the low-90s, with the current price at 91.95 as of the provided data.
- Moving averages: 50-day MA is approximately 94–95 in the most recent data, slightly above current price, implying a near-term bearish tilt until price can reclaim the MA.
- Momentum: RSI (14) around the mid-40s to mid-50s recently, implying neither overbought nor oversold near term.
- MACD: Negative (around -0.2 to -0.1) with the signal line around near zero, suggesting modest near-term downside pressure but not a strong bearish momentum.
- Key near-term levels to watch: The 50-day MA around 94; critical zone near 92–93 (recent support area) and the drawn resistance at 100, 115, 137.
Technical Summary Table
| Indicator (Last 60 days) | Latest Value |
|---|---|
| 50-day MA | ~94.5 (latest) |
| Price | 91.95 |
| RSI (14) | ~50 (around 10/09 data) |
| MACD (12,26,9) | ~-0.2 (bearish, near zero) |
| Short-term trend | Bearish bias vs. 50-day MA; potential near-term bounce if price holds 92 and moves above 94 |
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
- The three explicit price targets provided are Low 100, Median 115, High 137.
- Relative to today’s level, this implies:
- Low target: +8.8% upside
- Median target: +25.1% upside
- High target: +49.0% upside
- Analyst consensus (26 analysts) shows a mean target of 116 and a median of 115, aligning with the mid-point and suggesting the market expects a modest-to-significant upside over the next 12 months, conditional on energy price trajectories and demand/supply dynamics.
Table: Price Targets and Current vs. Targets
| Target | Level (USD) | Upside vs Current (91.95) |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 100.00 | +8.8% |
| Median | 115.00 | +25.1% |
| High | 137.00 | +49.0% |
| Current price | 91.95 | baseline |
Short-Term (3 months): Price target 100.0
- Justification and drivers:
- Near-term price action remains sensitive to crude oil price volatility and macro energy demand signals.
- The stock trading below the near-term resistance implied by the 50-day MA (~94–95) leaves a narrow window for a quick move to the 100 level if oil prices stabilize and earnings revisions stabilize or improve.
- Key drivers: oil price stability or upside, favorable FX (if any), and continued CAPEX discipline with potential buybacks maintaining capital returns.
Mid-Term (12 months): Price target 115.0
- Justification and drivers:
- Forward P/E around 11.5x offers a reasonable multiple given COP’s cash flow generation and dividend, with potential multiple expansion if commodity prices stabilize or rise and if earnings revisions improve.
- Cash generation strength (normalized EBITDA in the 5.9–7.5B range across quarters) supports continued buybacks and dividend increases.
- Key drivers: Oil price stability/rally, sustained production efficiency, and continued deleveraging or at least maintenance of leverage while returning capital to shareholders.
Long-Term (3+ years): Price target 137.0
- Justification and drivers:
- Structural advantages: COP’s diversified asset base, disciplined capital allocation, and strong balance sheet support long-term value creation.
- Potential upside catalysts include sustained high cash generation, potential energy transition-related upside in gas/liquids demand balance, and a favorable commodity environment that supports higher free cash flow.
- Key drivers: Structural energy demand growth, capital allocation that continues to prioritize shareholder returns, and a favorable long-run oil price trajectory.
Key Risks & Opportunities
- Major risks
- Oil price volatility and macro energy demand: COP is highly sensitive to crude price moves and refinery demand cycles.
- Financing and leverage: While debt levels are manageable, a sustained commodity price downturn could pressure cash flows and credit metrics.
- EPS revisions: Recent revisions show more downgrades than upgrades in the near term, signaling cautious sentiment around near-term quarterly performance.
- Key opportunities
- Free cash flow and buybacks: COP’s cash generation supports shareholder returns; continued buybacks could help lift per-share metrics.
- Dividend stability and potential growth: The dividend is currently attractive relative to peers, supported by strong cash flow.
- Valuation support: Forward multiples around 11–12x offer room for multiple expansion if earnings stabilize and oil prices hold or rise.
Investment Recommendation
- Rating: Hold
- Time horizon: 12–24 months
- Rationale:
- The stock trades at a reasonable but not deeply undervalued multiple given its earnings power, cash flow, and balance sheet. The current price of ~$92 sits below the near-term resistance implied by the 50-day MA (around $94–95) and below the suggested price-target framework (100/115/137). The three explicit price targets provide clear upside potential, but near-term upside may be cushioned by ongoing EPS revisions and macro oil price risk.
- If oil prices stabilize or improve and earnings revisions shift toward upgrades, COP could move toward the 100–115 range in the next 6–12 months and approach the 137 target over a multi-year horizon, barring significant macro headwinds.
- Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately +10% to +50% depending on scenario, with the base case around the mid-teens to low-20s if the mid-target path to 115 is realized and supported by consistent cash return strategies.
Appendix: Earnings Summary, EPS Trends, and EPS Revisions References
- Earnings summary highlights (from the provided table):
- Normalized EBITDA: 5.887B (2025-06-30); 7.524B (2025-03-31); 5.978B (2024-12-31); 5.868B (2024-09-30); 6.348B (2024-06-30); 6.30B (2024-03-31)
- Net income from continuing operations: 1.971B (2025-06-30); 2.849B (2025-03-31); 2.306B (2024-12-31); 2.059B (2024-09-30); 2.329B (2024-06-30); 2.320B (2024-03-31)
- Diluted EPS: 1.56 (2025-06-30); 2.23 (2025-03-31); 1.90 (2024-12-31); 1.76 (2024-09-30); 1.98 (2024-06-30)
- Total Revenue: 14.00B (2025-06-30); 16.52B (2025-03-31); 14.24B (2024-12-31); 13.04B (2024-09-30); 13.62B (2024-06-30)
- EPS Trend (recent quarters and annuals) shows current quarter EPS around 1.41–1.56 and trailing annual EPS in the 6.4–6.9 range, indicating a higher annual base with quarterly variation.
- EPS Revisions: Near-term sentiment has more downgrades than upgrades in recent periods, particularly in the +1q horizon, which supports a cautious near-term view unless there is a positive shift in oil prices and earnings momentum.
If you’d like, I can tailor a scenario-based forecast (bull, base, bear) using the price targets and the latest earnings/EPS revision data to quantify potential annual returns and probabilities.