ConocoPhillips Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for ConocoPhillips (COP).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for ConocoPhillips (COP).

ConocoPhillips (COP) — Comprehensive Analysis as of 2025-10-07

Note on Price Target Lines (drawn on the chart)

  • Levels drawn (horizontal lines extended 30 days into the future from today):
    • Low Target: 100.00 (color: blue #1E90FF)
    • Median Target: 115.00 (color: orange #FFA500)
    • High Target: 137.00 (color: crimson #DC143C)
  • Drawing origin/time: 2025-10-07T00:00:00-04:00
  • End date for extension: 2025-11-06T00:00:00-04:00

Executive Summary

  • COP trades below the current consensus price targets, with a current price around 94.91 and target mix of 100 (low), 115 (median), and 137 (high).
  • Investment thesis: COP remains a cash-flow-rich E&P, offering a solid dividend (3.31% yield) and potential upside from favorable energy prices, disciplined capital allocation, and a constructive balance sheet. The current price sits below the median target, implying potential upside if macro energy demand and crude prices stabilize or improve and if the company sustains strong free cash flow.
  • Key caveat: EPS revisions have shown more downgrades than upgrades recently, and near-term earnings optics show some sequential softness in the most recent quarter. The stock’s beta is modest (~0.64), suggesting relatively lower volatility versus the market, but the energy cycle remains the dominant driver of COP’s earnings.

Fundamental Analysis Key Valuation and Health Metrics

  • Market Cap: 118.54B
  • Enterprise Value: 135.79B
  • Trailing P/E: 12.72
  • Forward P/E: 11.82
  • Price to Book: 1.81
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 15.93%
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 8.27%
  • Profit Margin: 15.47%
  • Gross Margin: 48.23%
  • Operating Margin: 19.73%
  • Debt to Equity: 35.88x
  • Total Cash: 5.34B
  • Total Debt: 23.53B
  • Dividend Yield: 3.31%
  • Five-Year Average Dividend Yield: 2.59%
  • Beta: 0.64

Table: Selected Fundamentals

  • Source: Provided data

Metric | COP Value

  • Market Cap | 118,537,117,696
  • Enterprise Value | 135,789,404,160
  • Trailing P/E | 12.72
  • Forward P/E | 11.82
  • Price to Book | 1.81
  • ROE | 15.93%
  • ROA | 8.27%
  • Profit Margin | 15.47%
  • Gross Margin | 48.23%
  • Operating Margin | 19.73%
  • Debt/Equity | 35.88
  • Total Cash | 5,340,000,256
  • Total Debt | 23,529,000,960
  • Dividend Yield | 3.31%
  • Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield | 2.59%
  • Beta | 0.64

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (quarterly)

  • Total Revenue (most recent quarter): 14.00B
  • EBITDA (most recent quarter): 6.206B
  • EBITDA (normalized, latest period): 5.887B
  • Operating Income (most recent quarter): 2.606B
  • Net Income (continuing ops, most recent quarter): 1.971B
  • Net Income (quarterly, most recent): 1.971B
  • Diluted EPS (most recent quarter, 2025-06-30): 1.56
  • Diluted EPS (previous quarter, 2025-03-31): 2.23
  • Diluted EPS (2024-12-31): 1.90
  • Diluted EPS (2024-09-30): 1.76
  • Diluted EPS (2024-06-30): 1.98
  • Depreciation: 2.862B
  • Cost of Revenue: 10.495B
  • Net Income: 1.971B

Earnings Trend

  • Most recent quarter EPS: 1.56 (2025-06-30)
  • Sequential trend: 2.23 (2025-03-31) → 1.56 (2025-06-30) indicates a meaningful sequential decline in the most recent disclosure
  • Trailing 4-quarter EPS (approximate): 0q around 1.5–2.3 per quarter, with LTM/0y figures around 6.45–6.69 (illustrative trailing context from provided trend data)

EPS Trend (selected points from the data)

  • 0q (current quarter): 1.51919
  • +1q (next quarter): 1.40962
  • 0y (trailing year): 6.45021
  • +1y (next year): 6.69269

EPS Revisions

  • 0q (current quarter): Up Last 7d = 0, Up Last 30d = 1, Down Last 30d = 3, Down Last 7d = 2
  • +1q (next quarter): Up Last 7d = 0, Up Last 30d = 0, Down Last 30d = 8, Down Last 7d = 1
  • 0y (trailing year): Up Last 7d = 1, Up Last 30d = 1, Down Last 30d = 4, Down Last 7d = 0
  • +1y (next year): Up Last 7d = 0, Up Last 30d = 2, Down Last 30d = 4, Down Last 7d = 1 Interpretation:
  • EPS revisions skew negatively for near-term periods (more downgrades than upgrades), particularly for the 0q and +1q windows. This aligns with the sequential EPS softness observed in the most recent quarterly data, suggesting near-term quarterly earnings risk if commodity prices stay range-bound.

Technical Analysis

  • Current Price vs 50-day Moving Average: Close near 94–95 region; 50-day MA is around 94.6 as of early October data. The price is slightly above the 50-day MA, indicating a marginally constructive short-term bias but not a strong breakout.
  • RSI (14): Reading around the 50–60 zone in recent observations, indicating neutral momentum with limited overbought/oversold pressure.
  • MACD (12,26,9): Recently near neutral to modestly bullish signal; no strong MACD divergence evident from the last readings.
  • Key Levels to watch: The chart-level horizontal lines drawn at 100 (blue), 115 (orange), and 137 (crimson) provide clear resistance and support reference points. The stock would need to clear the 115 level on convincing volume to shift the intermediate-term trajectory toward the high target zone.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 94.91
  • Target Low / Median / High: 100.00 / 115.00 / 137.00
  • Number of Analysts: 26
  • Target Mean Price: 116.12
  • Consensus takeaway: The median target (115) and mean target (~116) imply ~22–23% upside from the current price, with the high case at 137 implying ~44% upside if macro energy conditions and COP-specific dynamics align.
  • Additional context: The market is signaling a constructive longer-term view, but near-term revisions have been negative in some periods, suggesting an uneven near-term path.

Table: Analyst Price Targets (selected)

  • Current Price: 94.91
  • Target Low: 100.00
  • Target Median: 115.00
  • Target High: 137.00
  • Number of Analysts: 26
  • Target Mean: 116.12

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 100.00 (Low)
    • Justification: Mild near-term upside from macro stabilization and ongoing cash flow strength; optional catalysts include computational buyback activity and stabilization of energy prices. Risks include negative revisions and oil price volatility.
    • Key Drivers: Oil price backdrop, seasonal refinery demand, and any near-term company-specific updates.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 115.00 (Median)
    • Justification: Expected continuation of solid cash generation, dividend support, and potential buyback activity. If commodity prices maintain a constructive range, earnings visibility improves and the stock could re-rate toward the median target.
    • Key Drivers: Sustained free cash flow, capital allocation (dividends/buybacks), and the balance sheet resilience.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 137.00 (High)
    • Justification: Bulls assume macro energy upcycle, improving energy demand growth, and COP leveraging price realizations, with continued emphasis on shareholder returns. A structural uplift in multiple (P/E/EV/FCF yield) could push COP toward the high target.
    • Key Drivers: Energy demand trajectory, OPEC/geo-political dynamics, capital allocation efficiency, and ongoing debt management.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major Risks
    • Oil and gas price volatility driving earnings variability
    • Negative EPS revisions pressure in near-term quarters
    • Regulatory and geopolitical risks impacting supply/demand dynamics
  • Key Opportunities
    • Strong dividend yield combined with buyback programs could support equity value
    • Free cash flow generation at favorable commodity prices
    • Debt reduction and balance-sheet strengthening could improve valuation

Investment Recommendation

  • View: Hold to Add on Dips
  • Time Horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected Return Potential: Approximately 15–25% upside from current levels, subject to energy price trajectory and COP’s execution on capital allocation
  • Rationale: The stock trades below the median analyst target, offering meaningful upside if macro energy conditions stabilize or improve. However, near-term earnings revisions and quarterly EPS softness suggest a measured stance, with upside realization tied to commodity strength and COP’s capital allocation discipline.

Technical Summary

  • Current price around 94.91, slightly above the 50-day MA (~94.6), indicating a modestly constructive short-term bias.
  • RSI around mid-range (roughly 50–60) signaling neutral momentum.
  • MACD near neutral, suggesting limited short-term momentum but no immediate bearish signal.
  • Three horizontal price targets drawn on the chart (100 blue, 115 orange, 137 crimson) provide dynamic reference points for support/resistance and potential future price exploration.

Earnings Snapshot (Key takeaways from the data)

  • Near-term EPS softness: 2025-06-30 quarter EPS of 1.56 vs 2025-03-31 EPS of 2.23 indicates sequential softness.
  • YoY/Earnings Trend: Trailing/Earnings context shows annualized earnings in the 6.45–6.69 range in the most recent period, with quarterly volatility typical for integrated oil and gas names.
  • EPS Revisions: Higher frequency of downgrades in the near term (0q and next quarter) relative to upgrades, implying cautious near-term sentiment despite improving longer-term outlook.
  • Margins and profitability: Gross margin ~48%, operating margin ~20%, profit margin ~15%, indicating strong profitability cushion relative to commodity price swings.

Important Data Points (quick reference)

  • Current price: 94.91
  • Target Low / Median / High: 100 / 115 / 137
  • Target Mean: 116.12
  • 50-day MA: ~94.6
  • RSI (14): ~50–60 range (neutral)
  • MACD: Near neutral
  • Dividend yield: 3.31%
  • Beta: 0.64

If you’d like, I can:

  • Update the forward-looking price targets as new analyst estimates come in.
  • Add a sensitivity table showing upside scenarios at different oil price assumptions.
  • Overlay COP’s key macro catalysts (oil price, OPEC decisions, capex plans) with potential impact ranges on earnings and price.
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