Capital One Financial Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Capital One Financial Corporation (COF).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Capital One Financial Corporation (COF).

Lines drawn

  • Low Target (210): green
  • Median Target (260): orange
  • High Target (290): red

The horizontal lines were drawn today (2025-10-07) and extended 30 days into the future to align with the right edge of the chart. p1 time is 2025-10-07T00:00:00Z and p2 time is 2025-11-06T00:00:00Z for all lines.

Executive Summary Capital One Financial (COF) is trading around $213.85 with a defined analyst price path that suggests meaningful upside if earnings normalize from the current volatility. The forward multiple (~13.7x) and price-to-book around 1.30x imply that COF could re-rate higher if the company demonstrates improved credit quality, steady loan growth, and cost discipline. Near-term technicals show some softness (price trading near the 50-day moving average, RSI mid-30s, MACD negative), while the analyst group points to several upside cases illustrated by the target set (210, 260, 290). The combination of a solid balance sheet (cash vs. debt), a modest dividend yield, and a favorable forward earnings trajectory supports a constructive longer-term view, albeit with near-term earnings volatility that investors should monitor.

Key takeaways

  • Price targets imply potential upside to 260 (median) and up to 290 (high) from current levels, with a near-term risk floor near 210.
  • Forward-looking valuation (forward PE ~13.7x, P/B ~1.30x) supports upside if normalized earnings trajectories hold.
  • Near-term technicals point to continued consolidation; a pickup in earnings quality and cost controls could drive multiple expansion.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and market metrics
    • Current price: 213.85
    • Market cap: 136.76B
    • Enterprise value: 137.38B
    • Trailing P/E: 594.03 (note: this is extremely elevated due to recent earnings/one-time items; use forward P/E for a normalized view)
    • Forward P/E: 13.66
    • Price to book: 1.30
    • ROE: 0.00013 (very low/near zero, reflecting earnings volatility and accounting effects in recent periods)
    • ROA: 2.00e-05
    • Profit margins: 0.0%; Gross margins: 0.0%; Operating margins: -5.33% (reflects earnings volatility and unusual items driving profitability)
    • Total cash: 60.996B; Total debt: 55.852B; Net cash position modest (~5.14B)
    • Dividend yield: 1.12% (five-year avg ~1.60%)
    • Beta: 1.182
  • Balance sheet health
    • Cash generation is solid, with cash at roughly $61B and debt just under $56B; this supports ongoing liquidity and capacity for buybacks or strategic investments.
    • No clean debt-to-equity figure provided (debtToEquity: null). The cash-to-debt position suggests a manageable leverage profile, but earnings volatility remains a key risk to cash flow quality.
  • Earnings quality and sustainability
    • Recent earnings narrative shows large unfavorable items and substantial volatility: “Total Unusual Items” and negative “Normalized Income” in the latest quarter highlight a difficult quarterly erosion that can swing reported earnings.
    • Diluted EPS across recent quarters show negative in 2025-06-30 (-8.58) versus positive print in earlier quarters (e.g., 3.45 in 2025-03-31, 2.67 in 2024-12-31, 4.41 in 2024-09-30, 1.38 in 2024-06-30). This indicates earnings noise driven by unusual items and restructuring impacts rather than a steady earn-out.
  • Near-term drivers and catalysts
    • Normalization toward a more normalized earnings trajectory would be a positive catalyst.
    • Credit cost containment, improving loan growth demographics, efficiency gains, or an improved macro environment for consumer finance could drive earnings higher and support multiple expansion.
    • Potential catalysts include improving ROE and margin stabilization as unusual items recede.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)

  • 2025-06-30: Net income from continuing operations with minorities: -$4.263B; Diluted EPS: -8.58
  • 2025-03-31: Net income from continuing operations: +$1.404B; Diluted EPS: +3.45
  • 2024-12-31: Net income from continuing operations: +$1.093B; Diluted EPS: +2.67
  • 2024-09-30: Net income from continuing operations: +$1.778B; Diluted EPS: +4.41
  • 2024-06-30: Net income from continuing operations: +$0.597B; Diluted EPS: +1.38
  • 2024-03-31: Diluted EPS data not fully shown in the provided row

EPS Trends

  • 0q (current): 4.31242; 7 days ago: 4.2742; 30 days ago: 4.2202; 60 days ago: 4.24087; 90 days ago: 4.18688
  • +1q: 3.83661; 7 days ago: 3.81434; 30 days ago: 3.78567; 60 days ago: 3.843; 90 days ago: 3.64312
  • 0y: 17.68916; 7 days ago: 17.63634; 30 days ago: 17.58892; 60 days ago: 17.67892; 90 days ago: 15.32901
  • +1y: 19.75297; 7 days ago: 19.79499; 30 days ago: 19.72995; 60 days ago: 19.83068; 90 days ago: 19.4486

EPS Revisions

  • 0q: upLast7days = 2; upLast30days = 4; downLast30days = 0; downLast7Days = 1
  • +1q: upLast7days = 2; upLast30days = 3; downLast30days = 1; downLast7Days = 0
  • 0y: upLast7days = 1; upLast30days = 3; downLast30days = 2; downLast7Days = 0
  • +1y: upLast7days = 3; upLast30days = 3; downLast30days = 1; downLast7Days = 0 Interpretation: Net positive revisions more prevalent than negative for both near-term and forward horizons, suggesting some analyst optimism despite quarterly volatility.

Technical Analysis Current price action and key levels

  • Price: ~213.85
  • 50-day moving average (approx): ~218.9 (latest values around 218.9 on late Sept/early Oct, price trading near this level)
  • Price is currently: slightly below the 50-day MA, implying near-term resistance around 218-219 if momentum improves
  • RSI (14): ~32.8 (late data point), near oversold boundary but not deeply oversold yet; implies room for a bounce if buyers step in
  • MACD (12,26,9): Negative (-1.6), signaling bearish momentum, but some momentum may be converging modestly if price attempts a recovery
  • Trend context: The stock has shown earnings volatility and price oscillation around the 50-day MA; the MACD and RSI indicate limited near-term upside strength unless catalysts emerge

Summary of 50-day MA, RSI, MACD

  • 50-day MA: ~218.9 (COF recently trading below this level)
  • RSI (14): ~32.8 (neutral-to-bearish on the short horizon)
  • MACD (12,26,9): -1.6 (negative momentum)

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current analyst targets (21 analysts)
    • Low: 210
    • Median: 260
    • High: 290
    • Mean: 255.24
  • Current price: 213.85
  • Implied upside vs targets:
    • To Low: ~-1.6% (210 vs 213.85)
    • To Median: ~21.6% (260 vs 213.85)
    • To High: ~35.6% (290 vs 213.85)
  • Coverage: 21 analysts; the dispersion suggests a broad range of opinions, with the median and mean indicating a constructive longer-term stance.
  • Potential catalysts: improving credit quality, loan growth stabilization, cost controls, share repurchases or buybacks, a normalization of earnings from unusual items.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months): Target 210
    • Rationale: The target sits near the immediate price region and aligns with a near-term risk floor. With negative near-term momentum indicators (MACD) and a price just below the 50-day MA, a move toward 210 could occur if macro headwinds persist or if earnings surprises disappoint.
    • Drivers: macro environment, near-term earnings volatility, regulatory/regulatory backdrop affecting consumer banks.
    • Upside risk: If momentum turns bullish and earnings quality improves, the stock could hold above 210 and drift toward the 218-220 region.
  • Mid-Term (12 months): Target 260
    • Rationale: A median analyst target reflects a consensus that normalized earnings and balance-sheet stability can drive multiple expansion. Forward P/E ~13.7x and P/B ~1.30x leave room for multiple re-rating if earnings stabilize.
    • Drivers: improved credit costs, loan growth stabilization, cost-savings and efficiency gains, share repurchases, continued cash generation.
    • Upside potential: ~21-22% from current levels; key to unlock is earnings normalization and sustained margin stabilization.
  • Long-Term (3+ years): Target 290
    • Rationale: This level implies continued earnings growth, greater profitability, and potential structural improvements. Achieving 290 would require sustained top-line momentum, margin improvement after normalization, and favorable macro dynamics for consumer finance.
    • Drivers: durable revenue growth, loan portfolio quality, efficiency gains, disciplined capital allocation, and potential regulatory tailwinds.
    • Upside potential: ~35%+ from current levels if earnings power structurally improves and multiple expansion occurs.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major risks
    • Persistent earnings volatility due to credit costs, regulatory changes, or macro weakness in consumer finance.
    • Potential shocks from higher loan losses or negative reserve builds.
    • Valuation gaps (trailing P/E extremely high due to one-time items) can compress if earnings normalization is delayed.
    • Competition and fintech disruption could pressure margins or growth.
  • Key opportunities
    • Normalization of earnings from unusual items and improved credit costs.
    • Stable or improving loan growth and deposit dynamics.
    • Cost optimization, efficiency improvements, and potential buybacks supporting earnings per share growth.
    • Moderate dividend yield with potential for capital appreciation if earnings growth materializes.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold to cautious Buy (potentially a "Moderate Buy") with a 12-24 month horizon.
  • Rationale: The stock trades around 214 with a favorable forward-looking thesis supported by a 260 median target and a high-end target of 290. The near-term technicals show caution (price below the 50-day MA, RSI in the low-30s, MACD negative), but the mixed revisions data and positive analyst sentiment for the year ahead imply potential upside if earnings normalize. The risk arises from earnings volatility driven by unusual items and the need for improved profitability to support multiple expansion.
  • Expected return potential (12-24 months): Approximately 8-22% upside on a base-case scenario toward 260, with potential to approach 290 if earnings normalization and credit-cost improvements materialize.

Price Target Summary (Table)

  • Current price: 213.85
  • Low Target: 210
  • Median Target: 260
  • High Target: 290
  • Implied upside:
    • To Low: -1.6%
    • To Median: +21.6%
    • To High: +35.6%

Key numerical data (selected)

  • Market cap: 136,760,778,752
  • Enterprise value: 137,375,506,432
  • Forward P/E: 13.66
  • P/B: 1.30
  • Dividend yield: 1.12%
  • 50-day MA: ~218.9
  • RSI (14): ~32.8
  • MACD: -1.6
  • Total cash: 60,996,001,792
  • Total debt: 55,851,999,232

Appendix: Price Target Lines on Chart

  • Low Target 210 (green) extended to 2025-11-06
  • Median Target 260 (orange) extended to 2025-11-06
  • High Target 290 (red) extended to 2025-11-06

Notes and data sources

  • Price targets and analyst coverage: provided numbers
  • Earnings data (EPS trend, revisions, and recent earnings) are taken from the provided quarterly figures with emphasis on the volatility and the presence of large unusual items in 2025-06-30
  • Technical indicators (50-day MA, RSI, MACD) drawn from the given 60-day data points
  • All numerical data is presented in tables within the sections above

If you’d like, I can add a detailed quantitative model (e.g., a simple DCF or earnings-driven multiple-model) to estimate potential fair value under different earnings normalization scenarios and align those outcomes with the three drawn price targets.

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