Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY).
Horizontal price-line drawings completed.
- Low Target line (34.00): color #1E90FF (Blue). Time: 2025-10-02 → 2025-11-01
- Median Target line (51.00): color #28A745 (Green). Time: 2025-10-02 → 2025-11-01
- High Target line (68.00): color #FF4500 (Orange/Red). Time: 2025-10-02 → 2025-11-01
Ticker: BMY
Executive Summary
- Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) trades around the mid-40s with a meaningful dividend yield and a diversified revenue base. The stock sits near its 50-day moving average and has a wide analyst target range, reflecting a mix of upside potential and some near-term earnings-driven headwinds.
- Key considerables: a solid profitability profile and strong gross/operating margins, but a relatively heavy leverage profile (high debt-to-equity) and a sizable amount of “unusual items” affecting reported earnings in several quarters. The forward multiple appears unusually tight relative to the current earnings base (forward P/E around 6.7), suggesting earnings quality and/or multiple re-rating will be key to upside.
- Fundamental Analysis Table: Key Metrics (as provided)
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | 47.43 | As of 2025-10-02 |
| Market capitalization | 96.54 B | Approx. 96.54B |
| Enterprise value | 133.98 B | EV reflects net debt adjustments |
| Trailing P/E | 17.70 | Historical earnings valuation |
| Forward P/E | 6.75 | Implied near-term earnings growth expectations |
| PEG ratio | N/A | Not provided / not meaningful given growth mix |
| Price to book | 5.54 | Strong book-value support via intangibles/ROE |
| Return on equity | 29.3% | Solid profitability on equity base |
| Return on assets | 8.33% | Efficient asset use |
| Profit margin | 10.58% | Moderate, supported by product mix |
| Gross margin | 73.92% | High gross profitability |
| Operating margin | 33.68% | Strong operating efficiency |
| Debt to equity | 291.55 | Very high leverage; debt load is material |
| Total cash | 13.60 B | Cash reserves; leverage mitigant to some extent |
| Total debt | 50.99 B | Significant debt burden remains |
| Dividend yield | 5.62% | Attractive income component |
| Five-year avg dividend yield | 3.71% | Higher-than-average current yield |
| Beta | 0.357 | Low equity beta; relatively defensive vs. market |
Analysis:
- Valuation: The forward P/E of ~6.7 vs. a trailing P/E ~17.7 implies earnings are expected to grow or re-rate. This could reflect a mix of stable cash flow generation and potential pipeline upgrades, but could also be sensitive to any changes in pipeline success or spend discipline.
- Financial health: A sizable debt burden relative to cash suggests leverage risk. However, a robust dividend and solid margins provide a cushion and a defensive profile for income-focused investors. The debt-to-equity ratio is high; capital structure should be monitored for refinancing risk and any shifts in interest rates.
- Cash generation vs. leverage: Cash available (approx. $13.6B) supports service of debt, but the net debt position remains meaningful given the high EV. Margin resilience (gross ~74%, operating ~34%) supports free cash flow generation.
- Earnings Analysis Recent earnings summary (quarterly highlights)
- 2025-06-30
- Revenue: 12.269B
- Net income: 1.31B
- Diluted EPS: 0.64
- Normalized EBITDA: 5.255B
- Total unusual items: -$1.986B
- Tax rate for calculations: 25.9%
- Operating income: 3.774B
- Gross profit: 8.897B
- 2025-03-31
- Revenue: 11.201B
- Net income: 2.466B
- Diluted EPS: 1.21
- Normalized EBITDA: 5.? (5.236B-ish shown as 5.?B)
- Total unusual items: -$0.561B
- Tax rate: ~17.1%
- Operating income: 3.465B
- Gross profit: 8.168B
- 2024-12-31
- Revenue: 12.342B
- Net income: 0.072B
- Diluted EPS: 0.04
- Normalized EBITDA: 2.847B
- Total unusual items: -$0.296B
- Tax rate: ~21%
- Operating income: 0.671B
- Gross profit: 7.530B
- 2024-09-30
- Revenue: 11.893B
- Net income: 1.211B
- Diluted EPS: 0.60
- Normalized EBITDA: 5.123B
- Total unusual items: -$0.350B
- Tax rate: ~27.5%
- Operating income: 2.171B
- Gross profit: 8.935B
- 2024-06-30
- Revenue: 12.01B
- Net income: 1.681B
- Diluted EPS: 0.83
- Normalized EBITDA: 4.745B
- Total unusual items: -$0.342B
- Operating income: 1.792B
- Gross profit: 8.934B
- 2024-03-31
- Revenue: 12.201B
- Net income: 1.682B
- Diluted EPS: 0.83
- Normalized EBITDA: 4.406B
- Total unusual items: -$0.536B
- Operating income: 1.791B
- Gross profit: 8.934B
EPS trend (as provided)
| Period | Current | 7 days ago | 30 days ago | 60 days ago | 90 days ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 1.6882 | 1.6882 | 1.6882 | 1.69319 | 1.72254 |
| +1q | 1.57684 | 1.57684 | 1.57684 | 1.67307 | 1.68193 |
| 0y | 6.52033 | 6.52033 | 6.53274 | 6.33206 | 6.76453 |
| +1y | 6.02497 | 6.02497 | 6.02957 | 6.05702 | 6.05116 |
EPS revisions (recent)
| Period | Up Last 7 days | Up Last 30 days | Down Last 30 days | Down Last 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| +1q | 0 | 1 | 16 | 2 |
| 0y | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| +1y | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Notes on earnings:
- The quarterly results show a mix of elevated normalized EBITDA and reported net income influenced by significant “unusual items” in several periods. Normalized EBITDA remains robust across the quarters, suggesting underlying cash-generation strength even when reported net income is volatile.
- Diluted EPS swings are evident (e.g., 0q around ~1.58–1.69 in recent readings vs. 0.04–0.83 in some GAAP frames). This underscores the impact of items that management labels as non-core or one-off, and highlights the importance of focusing on normalized metrics for trend analysis.
- EPS revisions show more downgrades than upgrades in the near term (0q: more downgrades than upgrades over 30 days). The next quarter (+1q) likewise shows a substantial number of downgrades, implying continued near-term earnings risk or earnings-quality concerns that investors should monitor.
- Technical Analysis
- Price action: Last close near 47.4 with the 50-day moving average around 46.5 (as of 2025-10-01), placing the stock slightly above the short-term trend line.
- 50-day MA: Approximately 46.5, indicating a neutral-to-bullish short-term tilt given price is above the MA.
- RSI (14) (latest): Approximately 49.3, sitting in the mid-range (neither overbought nor oversold; suggests potential for range-bound behavior unless driven by fundamentals or catalysts).
- MACD (12,26,9): Last values show MACD around -0.5 with a slightly negative reading and a negative/flat signal line, suggesting modest near-term momentum weakness but not a strong downside signal. The MACD histogram has not shown a decisive bullish crossover recently.
- Current support/resistance framework:
- Near-term support: around 46.0–46.5 (near the 50-day MA), with minor support near 44–45 if price breaks.
- Near-term resistance: in the 49–52 range, with the analyst targets at 51 (median) and 53–55 implied by the mean target around 53 (see Analyst Targets section).
- Dividend support: 5.62% dividend yield provides an income floor and may support the stock in a risk-off environment.
- Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
- Current analyst coverage: 21 analysts
- Price targets (from data provided):
- Target Low: 34.0
- Target Mean: 53.0
- Target Median: 51.0
- Target High: 68.0
- Current price: 47.43
- Interpretation:
- The mean/median targets imply upside of roughly 9–27% from current levels, with a high-case scenario approaching the low- to mid-60s.
- The spread (34 to 68) reflects a wide range of sentiment and potential outcomes, likely tied to pipeline developments, regulatory milestones, and cost/margin dynamics.
- The number of analysts is solid (21), but the dispersion of targets signals a bifurcated view among the sell-side community.
- Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) All numeric data are referenced from the provided targets (Low 34, Median 51, High 68) and current price/analyst context.
-
Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: 51–53 (use 53 as a representative near-term goal)
- Justification: The stock trades just below the midpoint of the current analyst range with 21 analysts covering it. The near-term catalysts would include quarterly earnings clarity, potential pipeline updates, and the favorable dividend yield supporting a shallow risk-on move. RSI is neutral, and the price remains above the 50-day MA, supporting a mild uptick bias if momentum improves.
- Key drivers: Better-than-expected quarterly print, stabilizing operating margins, potential near-term pipeline milestones.
-
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: ~53–56 (use mean target 53 as baseline and consider 56 as a credible upper-bound scenario)
- Justification: With a forward P/E around 6.7 and a robust dividend, multiple re-rating could occur if earnings visibility improves (e.g., normalized earnings, stable cash flow, and manageable debt). The earnings-trend data show volatility due to unusual items; a shift toward cleaner earnings would support multiple expansion. The dividend yield remains an attractive component for equity income investors, potentially attracting new money and improving demand.
- Key drivers: Sustained revenue growth, margin stability, cleaner earnings (less impact from unusual items), potential regulatory/commercial milestones.
-
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: 68 (high-end analyst target)
- Justification: The long-run upside hinges on durability of cash flow, successful exploitation of the product portfolio, potential pipeline approvals, and macro conditions supporting dividend appeal. The 5.6% dividend yield is attractive on a long horizon, and a potential re-rating of the multiple could occur if growth becomes more visible or if risk is perceived to be lowering (e.g., debt management improvements, or better-than-expected pipeline outcomes).
- Key drivers: Pipeline success/fundamentals, capital allocation efficiency (debt management, buybacks/dividends), favorable regulatory outcomes, and a broadening of revenue streams beyond legacy products.
- Key Risks & Opportunities
- Major Risks
- High leverage: The debt-to-equity ratio is very high; refinancing risk and interest-rate sensitivity could pressurize cash flows.
- Earnings quality: Reported earnings show volatility due to unusual items; a sustained improvement in GAAP earnings would be needed for multiple expansion.
- Pipeline exposure: Dependency on successful clinical outcomes and regulatory approvals; downside if key programs fail or delays occur.
- Key Opportunities
- Dividend appeal: A >5% yield provides downside protection and income appeal, potentially attracting a broader investor base.
- Margin resilience: Gross and operating margins are strong; continued efficiency improvements could drive free cash flow growth.
- Valuation upside: Forward P/E of ~6.7 hints at potential re-rating if earnings visibility and balance sheet risk improve.
- Investment Recommendation
- Stance: Hold to Buy on a moderate time horizon (6–24 months), depending on earnings quality progression and debt-management improvements.
- Rationale:
- The stock has attractive income characteristics and a path to upside if earnings quality improves and pipeline milestones materialize.
- However, leverage and volatility in reported earnings (due to unusual items) add a layer of earnings risk that markets will price in over the near term.
- Time Horizon: 12–24 months
- Expected return potential: Approximately low-to-mid single digits to the high-teens, contingent on earnings normalization and debt management, with potential for outsized gains if pipeline success and multiple expansion converge.
Tabulated Data References (selected)
-
Analyst Targets
Target Low Target Mean Target Median Target High Current Price Analysts 34.0 53.0 51.0 68.0 47.43 21 -
Earnings Summary (selected quarters)
Quarter Revenue (B) Net Income (B) Diluted EPS Normalized EBITDA (B) Operating Income (B) Gross Profit (B) Tax Rate 2025-06-30 12.269 1.31 0.64 5.256 3.774 8.898 0.259 2025-03-31 11.201 2.466 1.21 ~5.234 3.465 8.168 0.171 2024-12-31 12.342 0.072 0.04 2.847 0.671 7.53 0.210 2024-09-30 11.893 1.211 0.60 5.123 2.171 8.935 0.275 2024-06-30 12.01 1.681 0.83 4.745 1.792 8.934 (not shown) 2024-03-31 12.01 1.682 0.83 4.406 1.791 8.934 (not shown) -
EPS Trend (selected)
Period Current 7dAgo 30dAgo 60dAgo 90dAgo 0q 1.6882 1.6882 1.6882 1.69319 1.72254 +1q 1.57684 1.57684 1.57684 1.67307 1.68193 0y 6.52033 6.52033 6.53274 6.33206 6.76453 +1y 6.02497 6.02497 6.02957 6.05702 6.05116 -
EPS Revisions (selected)
Period Up7d Up30d Down30d Down7d 0q 0 4 12 1 +1q 0 1 16 2 0y 0 1 1 1 +1y 1 2 2 1 -
Technical indicators (selected)
- 50-day MA (latest): 46.5
- RSI (latest): 49.3
- MACD (latest): -0.5; Signal: -0.6
- Price (latest): 47.4
Key Takeaways
- The stock offers meaningful income (dividend), defensive attributes, and a potential upside through multiple expansion if earnings quality improves and debt management progresses.
- Near-term volatility in GAAP earnings due to unusual items warrants careful attention to normalized earnings, cash flow, and free cash flow metrics.
- The drawn price targets provide a framework for visual resistance/support: 34 (blue), 51 (green), 68 (red). The current price sits in a zone where a move toward the median/high targets could occur if near-term catalysts align and earnings quality stabilizes.
If you’d like, I can extend the price-target analysis into scenario modeling (e.g., bull vs. base vs. bear) using the earnings-volatility and EPS revision data, or provide a more detailed quarterly earnings breakout aligned with the company’s upcoming earnings cadence.