Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY).

Back to Analysis Hub

Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY).

Horizontal price target trendlines drawn

  • Low Target (34.00): Green line drawn from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
  • Median Target (51.00): Blue line drawn from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
  • High Target (68.00): Red line drawn from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09

Technical note: Lines were extended 30 days into the future from today (2025-10-10) to reach the right edge of the chart.

Executive Summary

  • BMY is currently trading around 44.68 per share with a diversified oncology and immune-oncology portfolio, a generous dividend yield, and solid cash generation.
  • Analysts are moderately optimistic on upside to the 50s–60s area, with a high target of 68 and a median target around 51. This implies a potential upside range roughly from mid-teens to low-50s percent from current levels, depending on the path.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E around 6.36, well below many peers, and sport a dividend yield of about 5.6%. This suggests a value-oriented setup, supported by robust cash flow. However, leverage is high for a pharma company (debt-to-equity ~292) and near-term sentiment has shown more downgrades in EPS revisions, which warrants caution.
  • Near-term price action shows the stock trading below the 50-day moving average, with neutral RSI and modest MACD readings, indicating a potential wait-and-see posture until catalysts materialize.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and Size
    • Current price: 44.68
    • Market cap: 90.94B
    • Enterprise value: 128.10B
    • Trailing P/E: 17.94
    • Forward P/E: 6.36
    • Price-to-Book: 5.21
    • ROE: 29.3%
    • ROA: 8.33%
    • Profit margins: 10.58%
    • Gross margins: 73.92%
    • Operating margins: 33.68%
    • Dividend yield: 5.57%
    • Five-year average dividend yield: 3.75%
    • Beta: 0.34
  • Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
    • Total cash: ~13.60B
    • Total debt: ~50.99B
    • Debt to equity: ~291.55
    • Net debt (approx): ~37.4B (assuming cash used to offset debt)
  • Observations
    • A low forward P/E (6.36) vs high trailing P/E suggests investors are pricing in meaningful earnings growth or substantial debt load adjustments. The strong dividend yield mitigates some risk, but the heavy leverage remains a structural consideration.
    • The enterprise value remains elevated given the debt burden, indicating that the market is valuing the growth potential and pipeline durability, not just current earnings.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights from the provided figures)

  • Quarter End 2025-06-30
    • Normalized EBITDA: 5.255B
    • EBITDA: 3.269B
    • Operating Income: 3.774B
    • Net Income: 1.31B
    • Diluted EPS: 0.64
  • Quarter End 2025-03-31
    • Normalized EBITDA: 5.038B
    • EBITDA: 4.477B
    • Operating Income: 3.499B
    • Net Income: 2.456B
    • Diluted EPS: 1.20
  • Quarter End 2024-12-31
    • Normalized EBITDA: 2.847B
    • EBITDA: 2.553B
    • Operating Income: 0.671B
    • Net Income: 0.072B
    • Diluted EPS: 0.04
  • Quarter End 2024-09-30
    • Normalized EBITDA: 5.123B
    • EBITDA: 4.773B
    • Operating Income: 2.181B
    • Net Income: 1.211B
    • Diluted EPS: 0.60
  • Quarter End 2024-06-30
    • Normalized EBITDA: 4.745B
    • EBITDA: 4.403B
    • Operating Income: 1.691B
    • Net Income: 1.68B
    • Diluted EPS: 0.83
  • Quarter End 2024-03-31
    • Normalized EBITDA: 4.904B
    • EBITDA: 4.373B
    • Operating Income: 1.521B
    • Net Income: 1.68B
    • Diluted EPS: not provided in this snapshot Notes:
  • Earnings metrics show sizable quarterly volatility driven by one-time items and restructuring-related charges in some periods.
  • Normalized EBITDA remained strong in multiple quarters (around 5.0B), supporting cash generation profiles even when net income fluctuated due to unusual items.
  • Diluted EPS ranged from as low as 0.04 in a distressed quarter to as high as 1.20 in a stronger quarter, indicating earnings volatility and potential quarterly noise around non-operating items and tax effects.

EPS Trend

  • Current quarter (0q): 1.64616
  • 7 days ago: 1.6882
  • 30 days ago: 1.6882
  • 60 days ago: 1.68849
  • 90 days ago: 1.71664
  • +1q: 1.56786
  • +1q (previous snapshots): 1.57684, 1.57684, 1.58895, 1.66927
  • 0y: 6.49575
  • 0y (previous): 6.52033, 6.53274, 6.50612, 6.57936
  • +1y: 6.01862
  • +1y (previous): 6.02497, 6.02957, 6.03113, 6.05031 Interpretation:
  • Near-term quarterly EPS has shown a modest sequential decline (1.646 vs 1.689, etc.), while the trailing-twelve-month (0y) and next-year ( +1y ) estimates indicate a broader base in the mid-to-high single digits in aggregate earnings. This suggests some near-term softness coupled with expectations of earnings stability over the medium term.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q: upgrades 0, upgrades over last 30 days 0; downgrades last 30 days 1; downgrades last 7 days 1
  • +1q: upgrades last 7 days 0; upgrades last 30 days 1; downgrades last 30 days 16; downgrades last 7 days 2
  • 0y: upgrades last 7 days 1; upgrades last 30 days 1; downgrades last 30 days 1; downgrades last 7 days 0
  • +1y: upgrades last 7 days 1; upgrades last 30 days 2; downgrades last 30 days 2; downgrades last 7 days 1 Interpretation:
  • Near-term revision activity has leaned negative in the last 30 days for the +1q horizon, with a notable cluster of downgrades (16). This suggests near-term sentiment has shifted more cautious despite some positive revisions at longer horizons. The +1y revisions show some upgrades, but the recent trend remains a source of concern for near-term momentum.

Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)

  • Price action and indicators
    • Current price: 44.68
    • 50-day Moving Average (MA): approximately mid- to high-40s (roughly 45–46 in recent readings)
    • RSI (14) (latest): around 50–52 region (mid-50s in the most recent reading)
    • MACD (12,26,9): broadly negative or near-zero in the latest snapshots, with occasional prints above zero depending on the day
  • Interpretation
    • The price sits slightly below the 50-day MA, indicating a modest near-term momentum tilt to the downside or consolidation.
    • RSI around neutral suggests lack of overbought/oversold pressure.
    • MACD near zero-to-negative implies limited upside momentum in the very near term, unless catalysts emerge.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 44.68
  • Number of analysts: 21
  • Target High: 68.0
  • Target Low: 34.0
  • Target Median: 51.0
  • Target Mean: 53.0 Key observations:
  • The spread of analyst targets indicates a broad potential upside to the 50s–60s area, with a notable upside relative to the current price.
  • The mean target price (~53) and median (~51) imply an approximate 15–19% to 25% upside from 44.68 depending on the path to the target, with the high-case scenario above 50% upside.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target price: 51 (median target)
  • Upside vs current: ~14%
  • Justification / Key drivers:
    • Near-term earnings stability and execution,
    • Positive pipeline data or regulatory updates that support product sales and margin stability,
    • Ability to maintain dividend yield while leveraging cash flow for buybacks or debt management.
  • Risks:
    • Execution risk in the near term (earnings surprises, macro pressures), and continued EPS revision downgrades in the near term.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target price: 53–53.0 (mean/consensus around 53)
  • Upside vs current: ~19% to 22%
  • Justification / Key drivers:
    • Sustained cash generation and potential improvements in operating margins,
    • Continued pipeline momentum and potential label expansions in core franchises,
    • Shareholder-friendly actions (dividend growth, buybacks) that can support multiple compression of the forward multiple.
  • Risks:
    • Competitive pressure in immuno-oncology, potential delays in trial readouts, or regulatory hurdles.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target price: 68.00 (high target)
  • Upside vs current: ~52%
  • Justification / Key drivers:
    • Durable earnings growth from a broad-to-narrowing product portfolio, potential label expansions, and lifecycle management in key franchises,
    • Tailwinds from a robust cash return to shareholders and potential strategic acquisitions or partnerships to accelerate growth,
    • Macro stability aiding consistent demand for oncology and immunology therapies.
  • Risks:
    • Long-duration pipeline risk, competitive dynamics, patent/lifecycle considerations, and financial leverage considerations potentially constraining upside.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks
    • High leverage (debt-to-equity ~292) and sizable total debt relative to cash, which can constrain strategic flexibility and expose the company to higher financing costs if rates rise.
    • EPS revisions show a trend toward downgrades in the near term (especially for the +1q horizon), signaling potential near-term earnings volatility.
    • Biotech/pharmaceutical sector headwinds, including pricing pressure and competition from biosimilars, can impact revenue growth.
  • Opportunities
    • Strong dividend yield provides income generation and total return potential if price appreciation materializes.
    • Potential upside from pipeline catalysts, regulatory approvals, and commercial successes across core franchises (subject to the actual product portfolio progress).
    • The significantly lower forward P/E implies room for multiple expansion if earnings recover and pipeline milestones are met.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold with a bias toward upside potential, contingent on pipeline progress and earnings stability.
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential: Approximately 15–22% to the mid/high-50s or into the 60s if the median/high targets are realized and the balance sheet remains manageable.
  • Rationale:
    • The current price around 44.68 sits near a support band implied by the low target (34) but remains above the long-run risk thresholds implied by high debt and near-term EPS revision softness.
    • The analyst consensus targets suggest meaningful upside potential if catalysts align, but the near-term revisions and leverage risk support a cautious stance rather than an aggressive long-only call.

Appendix: Key Data Tables

  • Valuation and Fundamentals
    • Current price: 44.68
    • Market cap: 90.94B
    • Enterprise value: 128.10B
    • Forward P/E: 6.36
    • Trailing P/E: 17.94
    • P/B: 5.21
    • ROE: 29.3%
    • ROA: 8.33%
    • Gross margin: 73.92%
    • Operating margin: 33.68%
    • Net profit margin: 10.58%
    • Debt to equity: 291.55
    • Total cash: 13.60B
    • Total debt: 50.99B
    • Dividend yield: 5.57%
    • 5-year avg. dividend yield: 3.75%
    • Beta: 0.34
  • Analyst Targets
    • Current price: 44.68
    • Number of opinions: 21
    • Target Low: 34.0
    • Target Median: 51.0
    • Target High: 68.0
    • Target Mean: 53.0

Notes on Earnings and EPS data (as cited)

  • Recent earnings summary shows Normalized EBITDA around 5.0B in multiple quarters, with net income and EPS numbers fluctuating due to unusual items, tax effects, and one-off charges.
  • EPS trend indicates a near-term quarter with EPS around 1.65–1.69 (0q) and a subsequent near-term quarter around 1.57–1.58 (+1q), with trailing 0y and forward 1y EPS around the 6.0–6.5 and 6.0 ranges, respectively.
  • EPS revisions data demonstrate a concentration of downgrades in the +1q horizon in the last 30 days, contrasting with a smaller set of upgrades for longer horizons (0y, +1y). This underscores near-term skepticism, even as longer-run consensus remains constructive.

If you’d like, I can adjust the short/medium/long-term assumptions or incorporate additional catalysts (regulatory events, pipeline milestones, or macro scenarios) to refine the price target framework.

Chart is loading...