BlackRock, Inc. Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for BlackRock, Inc. (BLK).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for BlackRock, Inc. (BLK).
Trendlines drawn
- Low Target (1000.00): BLUE line
- Median Target (1218.00): GREEN line
- High Target (1394.00): ORANGE line
Details:
- p1: 2025-10-07T00:00:00-04:00, price: target level
- p2: 2025-11-06T00:00:00-04:00, price: same target level
- Ticker: BLK
The lines have been plotted on the active BLK chart extending 30 days into the future as requested.
Comprehensive Price Target Analysis — BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) Note: All figures are in USD unless stated otherwise. Data as of 2025-10-07.
Executive Summary
- BlackRock remains a core, high-quality asset manager with strong profitability, solid cash generation, and a robust balance sheet. The stock trades at a premium multiple relative to broader markets, supported by high ROE, resilient margins, and a solid 1.8% dividend yield.
- Analysts’ consensus targets imply modest near-term upside to the median target (~1218) and meaningful upside if the high target (~1394) is achieved. The low target (~1000) provides a downside scenario, serving as a downside risk reference.
- Technicals show the stock trading above the 50-day moving average with bullish momentum (MACD positive, RSI in the high 60s to low 70s range). Fundamentals suggest a durable earnings model, though near-term normalized earnings can show quarterly variance.
Fundamental Analysis
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price (BLK) | 1,179.27 | Near-term price anchor for targets and analysis. |
| Market Cap | 182.61 B | Large-cap, diversified asset manager. |
| Enterprise Value | 185.25 B | Reflects capital structure; modest net debt position. |
| Trailing P/E | 28.54x | Premium vs broad market; reflects quality/scale. |
| Forward P/E | 24.02x | Reasonable multiple given growth expectations. |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | Not provided. |
| Price to Book (P/B) | 3.714x | Elevated but consistent with a premier fee-based franchise. |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 13.92% | Solid profitability and capital efficiency. |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 3.61% | Reasonable efficiency for asset management. |
| Profit Margin | 29.69% | Healthy, driven by fee-based revenue and cost discipline. |
| Gross Margin | 49.02% | High, reflecting asset-light business model. |
| Operating Margin | 34.23% | Strong operational performance. |
| Debt to Equity | 28.5x | Moderate leverage; liquidity adequate given cash balance. |
| Total Cash | 11.66 B | Substantial liquidity buffer. |
| Total Debt | 14.71 B | Manageable relative to cash and earnings capacity. |
| Dividend Yield | 1.80% | Compelling for income-oriented investors; below five-year avg. |
| Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield | 2.34% | Historically higher yield; potential compression risk. |
| Beta | 1.46 | Elevated volatility vs. broad market; higher sensitivity to cycles. |
Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (USD billions unless stated)
| Quarter End | Net Income From Continuing Ops | Diluted EPS | Basic EPS | Normalized EBITDA | EBITDA | Normalized Income | Total Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 1.593 | 10.19 | 10.29 | 2.211 | 2.642 | 1.274 | 5.423 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1.510 | 9.64 | 9.74 | 2.153 | 2.123 | 1.535 | 5.276 |
| 2024-12-31 | 1.670 | 10.63 | 10.78 | 2.469 | 2.469? | 1.657 | 5.678 |
| 2024-09-30 | 1.631 | 10.90 | 11.02 | 2.529 | 2.529 | 1.501 | 5.136 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1.495 | 9.99 | 10.07 | 2.248 | 2.248 | 1.374 | 4.803 |
Notes:
- Latest reported quarter (2025-06-30) shows Net Income from Continuing Ops of about 1.593B and diluted EPS of 10.19; Basic EPS is 10.29. Normalized income for the same quarter was about 1.274B with Normalized EBITDA around 2.211B.
- Normalized Income is a helpful measure for underlying profitability, but it shows a sequential step down in 2025-06-30 versus 2025-03-31 (1.274B vs 1.536B), while other profitability lines remained robust. This suggests some quarterly variability in normalized items and tax effects.
- Total Revenue for 2025-06-30 was about 5.423B, consistent with a large, diversified revenue base.
EPS Trend
| Period | Current | 7 days ago | 30 days ago | 60 days ago | 90 days ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q (quarter) | 11.5657 | 11.9203 | 11.8807 | 11.6693 | 11.6399 |
| +1q | 12.5611 | 12.5045 | 12.4648 | 12.3106 | 12.0461 |
| 0y | 47.4008 | 47.6236 | 47.5584 | 47.2552 | 45.8321 |
| +1y | 52.5842 | 52.4964 | 52.4391 | 52.0716 | 51.5562 |
Interpretation:
- Trailing quarterly EPS (0q) has hovered in the low-teens range on a quarter-by-quarter basis, with a modest uptick in the +1q period. The year-over-year EPS level is substantially higher (0y and +1y levels) due to growth in annualized earnings.
- The trend shows that the current quarter is robust but not dramatically accelerating versus the prior quarter, consistent with a mature, fee-based engine with stable AUM growth but quarterly variability in MM/Unusual items.
EPS Revisions
| Period | Up Last 7 Days | Up Last 30 Days | Down Last 30 Days | Down Last 7 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| +1q | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 0y | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| +1y | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Interpretation:
- Near-term sentiment is constructive: multiple upgrades over the last 7-30 days with no downgrades for the latest period, and even more upgrades in the +1q horizon.
- Upgrades outpace downgrades across all periods, implying analysts expect continued earnings resilience and possible margin stability.
Technical Analysis
- Price Action: BLK trades around 1,179.27, clearly above the 50-day moving average (recent MA shown at ~1,127.7). The stock is in a positive momentum regime, with RSI in the high 60s to around 69 (late Sep to early Oct) and MACD positive (MACD ~13.3 vs Signal ~10.3 on 2025-10-06).
- 50-day Moving Average: The latest 50-day MA is 1,127.7 vs price 1,179.3 (as of 2025-10-06). This confirms a bullish short- to intermediate-term trend.
- RSI: The RSI around 69 suggests near-term strength with limited near-term risk of overbought conditions, though confirmatory price action is important.
- MACD: Positive and widening (MACD > Signal) indicates bullish momentum, supporting a constructive near-term bias.
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | 1,179.27 |
| Number of Analysts | 16 |
| Target Low | 1,000.00 |
| Target Median | 1,218.00 |
| Target High | 1,394.00 |
| Target Mean | 1,221.50 |
| Implied Upside (vs current) — Low | -15.1% |
| Implied Upside — Median | +3.3% |
| Implied Upside — High | +18.4% |
Key observations:
- The consensus low, median, and high reflect a range of outcomes, with the median around 1,218 and the mean near 1,221.50. The high target suggests upside if momentum and earnings persistence continue.
- The current price is ~1,179, implying a modest near-term upside to the median/mean targets and a larger potential upside if the high target is achieved.
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: ~1,218 (median); range 1,000 to 1,394 (low to high)
- Rationale: Analysts’ consensus points to modest upside from here, supported by constructive EPS revisions and the stock trading above its 50-day MA. Near-term catalysts include Q3 results, potential continued AUM growth, and margin stability.
- Key Drivers:
- Positive EPS revisions trending up, especially across the +1q horizon.
- Technicals showing a bullish backdrop (price above MA, positive MACD, strong RSI).
- Dividend yield remains ~1.8%; total return potential includes price appreciation and income.
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: 1,2xx to 1,3xx range; base around 1,218–1,221; bull-case up to 1,394
- Rationale: With BlackRock’s scale, durable fee-based revenue, and strong capital markets backdrop, a re-rating toward a 24x forward P/E (or higher if AUM growth accelerates) could yield mid-teens percentage upside on the high case, while the base case remains in the low-single digits.
- Scenarios:
- Base Case: ~1,218–1,230; upside ~+3–+5% from current levels.
- Bull Case: ~1,394; upside ~+18% from current levels if earnings momentum and AUM growth sustain.
- Bear Case: around 1,000 if macro headwinds or fee pressure intensify; downside ~-15% from current levels.
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: 1,500–1,700 (illustrative long-run range)
- Rationale: If AUM growth remains resilient, fee margins stay robust, and demand for global multi-asset management remains strong, multiple expansion could occur as earnings compound and balance-sheet efficiency improves. The stock could re-rate with improving cash flow, buyback execution, and potential capital allocation efficiency.
- Key Drivers:
- Sustainable AUM growth and net inflows.
- Margin stability and potential operating leverage.
- Share repurchase activity and disciplined capital allocation.
- Potential re-rating to higher forward P/E multiples as earnings compound and risk premium compresses.
Key Risks & Opportunities
- Key Risks:
- Macro/Geopolitical slowdowns impacting markets and asset flows.
- Fee compression or regulatory changes affecting management and performance fees.
- Concentration risk in a few large clients or product lines.
- Equity market volatility impacting AUM and performance fees.
- Key Opportunities:
- Continued AUM growth and higher-margin fee mix.
- Share repurchases and capital allocation efficiency.
- Potential multiple expansion as earnings compound and ROE remains robust.
- Global diversification and new product alternatives potentially expanding addressable market.
Investment Recommendation
- Recommendation: Hold to Moderate-Overweight with a 12–24 month horizon.
- Rationale: Valuation remains fair-to-rich given quality, scale, and earnings resilience. The consensus targets imply modest near-term upside with a meaningful upside in a bull scenario. The near-term upside is supported by positive revisions and a bullish technical setup, but the stock’s premium multiple and sensitivity to markets warrant patience.
- Expected Return Potential (12–24 months):
- Base-case: ~+3% to +5% total return, driven by earnings stability and continued modest multiple support.
- Bull-case: ~+18% to ~+25% if the high target of 1,394 is achieved and earnings momentum remains robust.
- Dividend contribution: ~1.8% yield, adding to total return.
- Time Horizon: 12–24 months; assess quarterly earnings revisions and AUM trends to adjust exposure.
Additional notes
- The earnings data show solid quarterly profitability with a preference for the continued normalization path. The latest quarter (2025-06-30) posted Net Income From Continuing Ops around 1.593B with Diluted EPS around 10.19, while the Normalized Income was 1.274B. A sequential decline in Normalized Income from 2025-03-31 to 2025-06-30 suggests quarterly variability in non-recurring items; however, the broader earnings trajectory remains constructive given the scale and efficiency of BlackRock.
- The EPS trend data indicate a rising sequence when moving from 0q to +1q (e.g., 11.56 to 12.56 for diluted EPS), while YoY numbers remain materially higher, consistent with earnings growth on a yearly basis.
- EPS revisions are predominantly positive across periods, suggesting improving sentiment among analysts and potential for multiple expansion if these revisions translate into realized earnings strength.
Tables you can reference for the above (condensed key figures)
- Valuation Snapshot (selected metrics)
- Recent Earnings Summary (quarterly)
- EPS Trend (0q, +1q, 0y, +1y)
- EPS Revisions (up/down by period)
- Analyst Targets and Upside (low/median/high/mean, number of analysts)
If you’d like, I can provide a more granular, line-by-line earnings breakdown or tailor the price target analysis to a specific scenario (e.g., WACC-sensitive valuation, cash-flow modeling, or AUM-growth-based scenario planning).