American Express Company Stock Price Targets

Drawn price-target lines Note: Horizontal lines have been plotted extending 30 days into the future from today (2025-10-07) for the Low, Median, and High price targets.

Low Target: 265.00 (color: red)
- p1: 2025-10-07T00:00:00-04:00, price 265.00
- p2: 2025-11-06T00:00:00-04:00, price 265.00
Median Target: 339.50 (color: blue)
- p1: 2025-10-07T00:00:00-04:00, price 339.50
- p2: 2025-11-06T00:00:00-04:00, price 339.50
High Target: 394.00 (color: green)
- p1: 2025-10-07T00:00:00-04:00, price 394.00
- p2: 2025-11-06T00:00:00-04:00, price 394.00

Executive Summary

American Express (AXP) is trading around 331.99, with a median price target of 339.50 and an upside to the high target of 394.00. The low target implies a potential downside risk to ~265. The current price sits near the 50-day moving average and the next 1–2 quarters will be the key drivers of whether the stock can push toward the median/high targets or drift toward the downside risk.
The stock is supported by a strong profitability profile, robust cash generation, and a durable consumer-centric network. However, leverage is relatively high, and near-term earnings momentum, as reflected in EPS revisions and quarterly trends, will be important to watch.

Fundamental Analysis Key metrics (as provided)

Current price: 331.99
Market cap: 231.19B
Enterprise value: 232.77B
Valuation: Trailing P/E 23.33; Forward P/E 21.96
Price to Book: 7.15
Return on Equity (ROE): 32.81%
Return on Assets (ROA): 3.57%
Profit margin: 15.99%
Gross margin: 64.25%
Operating margin: 21.00%
Debt to equity: 187.93
Total cash: 57.76B
Total debt: 60.72B
Net debt (debt − cash): ~2.96B
Dividend yield: 0.96% (5-year avg: 1.16%)
Beta: 1.29

Table: Selected Fundamentals

Metric	Value
Price	331.99
Market Cap	231.19B
EV	232.77B
Trailing P/E	23.33
Forward P/E	21.96
P/B	7.15
ROE	32.81%
ROA	3.57%
Net Margin	15.99%
Gross Margin	64.25%
Operating Margin	21.00%
Debt/Equity	187.93
Cash	57.76B
Debt	60.72B
Net Debt	~$2.96B
Dividend Yield	0.96%
5-yr Avg Dividend Yield	1.16%
Beta	1.29

Earnings Analysis Recent earnings snapshot (latest quarter to 2025-06-30)

Total Revenue: 17.856B
Net income (continuing operations): 2.885B
Diluted EPS: 4.08 (also Basic EPS: 4.08)
Pretax Income: 3.55B
SG&A: 3.707B
Other non-interest expense: 8.603B
Net Income, Including Noncontrolling Interests: 2.885B

Earnings Trend (EPS)

0q (latest quarter): 3.98615
+1q: 3.62683
0y (TTM EPS): 15.34179
+1y: 17.31729

EPS Revisions Period | Up last 7 days | Up last 30 days | Down last 30 days | Down last 7 days

0q | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1
+1q | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0
0y | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2
+1y | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2

Interpretation:

The most recent data show a modest level of upward revisions across near-term horizons (0q and +1q), with several more upgrades than downgrades in the last 30 days. The longer-horizon revisions (0y and +1y) show a mixed picture, with more downgrades in the 30- to 90-day window in the +1y bucket, implying some expectations for slower longer-term earnings growth.

Earnings Summary Table (selected quarters)

Quarter	Total Revenue (millions)	Net Income (millions)	Diluted EPS	Basic EPS	Pretax Income (millions)	SG&A (millions)
2025-06-30	17,856	2,885	4.08	4.08	3,550	3,707
2025-03-31	16,967	2,584	3.64	3.64	3,330	3,606
2024-12-31	17,179	2,170	3.04	3.04	2,756	3,181
2024-09-30	16,636	2,507	3.49	3.50	3,204	3,520
2024-06-30	16,333	3,015	4.15	4.16	3,794	3,429

Note: EPS trend shows a spike in the latest quarter’s earnings (0q around 4.0) versus prior quarters, with a YoY perspective indicating elevated annual EPS (TTM ~15.34, YoY ~17.32). Revenue growth has been relatively flat-to-modest in recent quarters, while margins have remained healthy.

Technical Analysis Price action and indicators

Current price: 331.99
50-day moving average (latest): 320.0 (as of 2025-10-06)
RSI (14): 56.7 (mid-neutral)
MACD (12,26,9): MACD 3.1 vs Signal 4.9 (bearish cross possibility on MACD vs Signal)
Key observations:
- Price sits above the 50-day MA, suggesting near-term strength, but the MACD indicates potential near-term softness if the MACD stays below the signal.
- RSI in the mid-50s implies neither overbought nor oversold; room for a short-term swing.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

Current price: 331.99
Analyst targets (24 opinions):
- Low: 265.00
- Median: 339.50
- High: 394.00
- Mean: 332.24
Market cap / coverage: 231.19B with 24 analysts giving opinions
Implied upside vs current price:
- To Median: ~2.2%
- To High: ~18.7%
- To Low: ~-20.0%
Observations:
- The median target is just modestly above current price, suggesting limited near-term upside unless catalysts emerge. The distribution shows some bulls are optimistic (to 394), while a portion of the street remains conservative (265).

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Using the Low, Median, and High targets provided, with the current price context, the following scenarios are presented. Targets are expressed as price levels that can be revisited as new data arrives.

Short-Term (3 months): Target = 339.50 (Median)
- Justification: Near-term earnings momentum could be supported by EPS revisions and continued consumer spend. The stock is trading near the 50-day MA, leaving room for a modest multiple-driven lift if results meet/beat expectations and sentiment remains constructive.
- Key drivers: EPS revisions (near-term), stability in consumer spend, modest multiple expansion, steady cash generation.
Mid-Term (12 months): Target = 394.00 (High)
- Justification: If macro tailwinds persist (consumer spending resilience, travel/experiences volume normalization), margin stability continues, and buyback activity remains active, AXP could approach the high target.
- Key drivers: Revenue/margin expansion, higher travel/entertainment spend, share repurchases, favorable tax/regulatory environment.
Long-Term (3+ years): Target = 265.00 (Low)
- Justification: Downside risk exists if macro headwinds intensify, competitive pressures increase, or regulatory constraints weigh on growth in card volumes and merchant/brand partnerships. The 3+ year horizon could reflect a more conservative view should structural concerns persist.
- Key drivers: Margin pressure, slower growth in card volume, regulatory risks, macro weakness.

Key Risks & Opportunities

Risks:
- Higher credit/operational costs in a weak macro environment could compress margins.
- Regulatory scrutiny on consumer financial services and interchange-related dynamics.
- Elevated leverage (Debt/Equity near 188) could create balance-sheet sensitivity in downturns.
- Potential slowdown in consumer spending or travel volumes could impact revenue growth.
Opportunities:
- Franchise strength in premium cardholder base and travel-related spend.
- Ongoing cost discipline and efficiency improvements.
- Buybacks could support earnings per share and provide upside under favorable macro conditions.
- Continued growth in merchant partnerships and co-brand opportunities.

Investment Recommendation

Recommendation: Hold
Time horizon: 12–24 months
Rationale: The current price sits around the 50-day moving average with a neutral RSI. The median target (339.50) implies modest upside (~2.2%) in the near term, while the high target (394) suggests potential upside of roughly 19% if favorable conditions persist. The low target (265) represents meaningful downside risk should macro or company-specific headwinds intensify. EPS revisions show a tilt toward more upgrades than downgrades in the near term, but longer-term revisions are more mixed. Given a solid profitability profile, robust cash generation, and the quality of the AmEx brand, a neutral stance is prudent until clearer catalysts emerge.
Expected return potential (12–24 months):
- Base case (toward Median): ~+2% to +5%
- Bull case (toward High): ~+15% to +20%
- Bear case (toward Low): ~-20% or more

Notes on Earnings, EPS Trends, and EPS Revisions

Earnings strength is visible in the latest quarter (2025-06-30) with diluted EPS of 4.08 and net income of 2.885B on revenue of 17.856B, indicating solid profitability.
The EPS trend shows a recent spike in the latest quarter relative to prior quarters (0q ~3.99) but a softer sequential trend for +1q (~3.63). The trailing twelve months (0y) EPS is ~15.34, with a year-over-year reference around +1y of ~17.32 for the long-term trend.
EPS revisions data indicate a tilt toward upgrades in the near term (0q: 3 upgrades vs 3 downgrades; +1q: 3 upgrades vs 2 downgrades), and a generally positive near-term sentiment (more upgrades than downgrades in the last 30 days). Longer horizon revisions show more mixed sentiment, suggesting cautious optimism near term but uncertainty as the horizon extends.

Technical Analysis Summary

Price remains above the 50-day MA (~320), indicating near-term bullish context, though MACD remains near a potential cross with the MACD line below the Signal line (MACD 3.1 vs Signal 4.9).
RSI around 56.7 indicates neutral momentum with potential for a move higher if earnings catalysts come through and sentiment improves.

Appendix: Data Used

Price targets: Low 265, Median 339.50, High 394 (current price 331.99)
50-Day MA data: Last value 320.0 (2025-10-06)
RSI (14): 56.7 (2025-10-06)
MACD (12,26,9): MACD 3.1; Signal 4.9 (latest)
Earnings snapshot: Last four quarters around 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31, 2024-12-31, 2024-09-30
EPS Trend and EPS Revisions: Provided in data tables above

If you’d like, I can generate a one-page executive deck with these figures, or tailor the price-target sensitivity analysis to a specific scenario (macro growth vs. recession paths) to refine the risk/reward profile.