ASML Holding N.V. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for ASML Holding N.V. (ASML).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for ASML Holding N.V. (ASML).

Here is a comprehensive ASML Holdings N.V. (ASML) analysis for today, 2025-09-30. I’ve drawn the three price-target horizontal lines as requested and provided a structured, data-rich view of the stock from fundamentals to technicals and price-target implications.

Price-Target Lines Drawn

  • Low Target: 599.58 (green) – ASML
    • Drawn from: Low Target price 599.58
    • Timeframe: 2025-09-30 to 2025-10-30
    • Color: #2ECC71 (green)
  • Median Target: 858.12 (orange) – ASML
    • Drawn from: Median Target price 858.12
    • Timeframe: 2025-09-30 to 2025-10-30
    • Color: #F39C12 (orange)
  • High Target: 1070.58 (red) – ASML
    • Drawn from: High Target price 1070.58
    • Timeframe: 2025-09-30 to 2025-10-30
    • Color: #E74C3C (red)

Technical note on lines: The three horizontal trendlines extend 30 days into the future from today (2025-09-30) and will appear at 599.58, 858.12, and 1070.58 respectively, enabling quick visual reference for support, base target, and upside cap on the chart.

Comprehensive Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: ASML remains a technology leader in advanced lithography with superior margins and a strong balance sheet. The stock trades at a premium multiple reflecting its dominant market position and secular growth in semiconductor manufacturing. Near-term volatility could stem from macro risk and potential short-term earnings revisions, but long-term demand drivers from wafer fab expansion and process node progression support a constructive longer-term view.
  • Price outlook: Near-term price action is currently elevated with RSI in overbought territory; a pullback toward the median target around the mid- to high-800s could occur, while upside potential exists into the ~1,070 level if momentum and demand for advanced lithography compounds remain robust.

Price Target Rationale at a Glance

  • Current price (as of 2025-09-30): 962.61
  • Analyst targets (consensus view with spreads): Low 599.58, Median 858.12, High 1070.58
  • Target mean: 856.92 (slightly below current price, indicating some scope for near-term multiple compression while long-run upside remains if growth stays intact)
  • Key drivers: EPS momentum, margins, capital intensity of lithography, AI/advanced semiconductor demand cycles, and potential revisions as earnings season unfolds.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and size
    • Market cap: 379,176,845,312
    • Enterprise value: 365,068,845,056
    • Trailing P/E: 34.06
    • Forward P/E: 36.05
    • Price-to-book: 21.17
    • PEG ratio: not provided
    • Beta: 1.25
  • Earnings quality and margins
    • Profit margin: 29.27%
    • Gross margin: 52.52%
    • Operating margin: 34.64%
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 58.25%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 16.35%
  • Capital structure and liquidity
    • Total cash: 7.25b
    • Total debt: 3.70b
    • Debt/Equity: 20.995% (low leverage)
  • Cash flow and dividends
    • Dividend yield: 0.78%
    • Five-year average dividend yield: 0.82%
  • Observations: Strong profitability and high ROE reflect a high-margin business with solid balance sheet health. The balance sheet shows ample cash vs. debt and modest leverage, which supports R&D investment in next-gen lithography technology.

Table: Key Metrics (as provided)

MetricValue
Current price962.61
Market cap379,176,845,312
Enterprise value365,068,845,056
Trailing P/E34.06
Forward P/E36.05
PEG ratio—
Price-to-book21.17
Return on equity58.25%
Return on assets16.36%
Profit margins29.27%
Gross margins52.52%
Operating margins34.64%
Debt-to-equity20.995%
Total cash9.25b? (7.25b stated)
Total debt3.70b
Dividend yield0.78%
Five-year avg dividend yield0.82%
Beta1.25

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (quarters provided)

  • 2025-06-30:
    • Revenue (Operating Revenue): 7,691,700,000
    • Gross Profit: 4,043,700,000
    • Operating Income: 3,137,900,000
    • EBITDA: 3,649,500,000
    • Net Income: 2,676,200,000
    • Diluted EPS: 6.00
  • 2025-03-31:
    • Net Income: 2,355,000,000
    • Diluted EPS: 6.84
  • 2024-12-31:
    • Net Income: 2,693,400,000
    • Diluted EPS: 5.28
  • 2024-09-30:
    • Net Income: 2,076,500,000
    • Diluted EPS: 4.01
  • 2024-06-30:
    • Net Income: 1,577,900,000
    • Diluted EPS: 3.11

EPS Trend (as provided)

  • Current (0q): 5.32949
  • 7 days ago: 5.34026
  • 30 days ago: 5.33872
  • 60 days ago: 5.33382
  • 90 days ago: 5.93327
  • +1q: 6.72719 (current)
  • +1y: 25.42297 (trailing 12-month)
  • 0y: 23.93147

EPS Revisions (as provided)

  • 0q: upLast7Days 1, upLast30Days 1, downLast30Days 0, downLast7Days 0
  • +1q: upLast7Days 1, upLast30Days 1, downLast30Days 0, downLast7Days 0
  • 0y: upLast7Days 0, upLast30Days 2, downLast30Days 2, downLast7Days 1
  • +1y: upLast7Days 0, upLast30Days 0, downLast30Days 5, downLast7Days 2

Observation on earnings and revisions:

  • Near-term revisions (0q and +1q) show modest positive direction (a few upgrades in the last 30 days), suggesting some improvement momentum ahead of or during the near term.
  • Longer-horizon revisions (0y and +1y) show pressure from downgrades in the 30- to 90-day range, indicating some expectations for slower growth or uneven visibility beyond the near term.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action and trend context
    • Current price: 962.61
    • The stock trades well above the 50-day moving average (recent 50-day MA around 750s; latest data near 782-800s in late Aug/Sep), suggesting a strong uptrend with positive momentum.
  • 50-day Moving Average (MA)
    • 50-day MA values trend upward in July–Sept with the latest reading around the 750s–780s, indicating the price is above a rising intermediate-term trend.
  • RSI (14)
    • Latest RSI values in the high-80s in late September indicate an overbought condition and potential for a near-term pullback or consolidation.
  • MACD (12,26,9)
    • MACD is strongly positive and widening relative to the signal line as of the latest date (MACD > 50 with signal around mid-40s), signaling bullish momentum but also a note to watch for any MACD reversal or consolidation.
  • Current technical takeaway: Bullish trend with robust momentum, but overbought RSI flags a risk of short-term mean reversion toward the median price target level around 858.12.

Table: Technical Indicators (latest values)

IndicatorLatest Reading
50-day MA~750s–780s (rising)
RSI (14)~84.7 (late Sep)
MACD54.4 (with Signal 46.1) (late Sep)

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Target Median: 858.12
  • Target Low: 599.58
  • Target High: 1070.58
  • Number of Analysts: 12
  • Current Price: 962.61
  • Target Mean: 856.92

Table: Analyst Price Targets

ItemValue
Current Price962.61
Target Median858.12
Target Low599.58
Target High1070.58
Number of Analysts12
Target Mean856.92

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Disclaimer: The three horizons reflect a base-case, upside, and downside scenario built around the provided target set. The short/mid/long-term framing uses the given target values to illustrate potential outcomes and drivers.

  • Short-Term (3 months)

    • Target: 858.12 (Median)
    • Justification:
      • Near-term technical setup is elevated with RSI in overbought territory, suggesting a potential near-term consolidation or mild pullback toward the median target.
      • Earnings revisions for the near term show a mix of upgrades and downgrades; near-term momentum remains supported by strong margins and cash generation, but multiple compression is possible if macro or supply chain concerns re-emerge.
    • Key drivers:
      • Momentum fade from overbought RSI; possible minor EPS revision adjustments around the upcoming earnings period.
      • Continued demand for leading-edge lithography systems in data-center/AI-driven semiconductor ramps, but near-term profitability signals (margins, cash flow) will be watched closely.

  • Mid-Term (12 months)

    • Target: 1070.58 (High)
    • Justification:
      • If growth trends sustain (high-margin performance, robust cash flow, and continued market share leadership), the stock could re-rate higher on positive EPS revisions and continued capital discipline.
      • Analyst distribution shows strong upside potential with the high target at 1070.58, suggesting the market is pricing optionality around ongoing capex cycles and secular semiconductor expansion.
    • Key drivers:
      • Sustained revenue growth and margin expansion, continued demand for immersion/exposure in next-gen lithography, favorable demand environment for semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
      • Potential catalysts include positive earnings surprises, upside revisions, share buybacks, or expansion of end-market applications (AI, automotive, 5G/telecom) that drive capex.

  • Long-Term (3+ years)

    • Target (Bear Case/Downside): 599.58 (Low)
    • Justification:
      • A downside scenario could unfold if macro conditions worsen, if supply chain or demand for advanced lithography softens, or if competitive dynamics intensify and margins compress.
      • This level acts as a stress-case anchor to highlight the downside risk if growth and market dynamics deteriorate beyond near-term forecasts.
    • Key drivers:
      • Deterioration in semiconductor demand, pricing pressure on capital equipment, substantial delays in large capex cycles, policy/regulatory shifts affecting export controls and market access, or material adverse changes in end-market demand.

Technical/Qualitative Considerations

  • The stock is trading at a high multiple (trailing P/E ~34x, forward ~36x) with robust profitability (net margin ~29.3%, ROE ~58%). The premium reflects ASML’s leadership position and growth outlook in lithography for leading-edge semiconductors.
  • The RSI indicates overbought conditions near recent highs, suggesting a risk of short-term consolidation. The MACD shows strong positive momentum, supporting continued upside if earnings and revisions stay constructive.
  • The price-target lines drawn (599.58, 858.12, 1070.58) provide a visual framework for potential support, base-case target, and upside cap, with the current price near the median line, implying room for a near-term reversion toward the base case.

Earnings Quality and Growth Narrative

  • Recent earnings show solid profitability with rising operating income and EBITDA, but near-term EPS revisions show a mix of upgrades and downgrades across different horizons.
  • EPS Trend data shows a current quarter EPS around 5.33 to 6.0 (depending on the measure), with a trailing 12-month EPS around the mid-20s (0y ~23.93; +1y ~25.42). This implies positive earnings momentum over the last year, but near-term quarterly prints need to be watched for consistency.
  • Revenue and margin structure remain strong, with a gross margin around 52.5% and operating margin around 34.6%, supporting earnings durability.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks:
    • Overbought near-term conditions (RSI at ~84–85) could lead to short-term pullbacks.
    • EPS revisions in the +1y horizon show some downgrades historically, implying slower outer-year visibility or sensitivity to macro cycles.
    • Semiconductor capex cycles, supply chain constraints, and potential regulatory/export controls risk.
  • Opportunities:
    • Sustained AI-driven compute demand and node progression can support continued capex in lithography, expanding ASML’s TAM.
    • Margin resilience and cash generation can enable share repurchases or earnings upside, reinforcing the bull case.

Investment Recommendation

  • View: Hold to Moderate Buy with a tactical lens
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months (with optional upside to 3+ years if the high-case scenario plays out)
  • Return potential: Based on current targets, near-term path could see a reversion toward the median around 858–860 if a near-term consolidation occurs, with potential upside toward 1,070 in the mid-term if momentum and demand sustain. A bear-case downside toward ~600 exists but would require adverse macro/industry dynamics; this is a stress-case scenario.

Analyst Coverage and Catalysts

  • Coverage: 12 analysts; mixed revisions with near-term upgrades (0q, +1q) but downgrades visible in 0y and +1y revisions.
  • Catalysts:
    • Earnings print and margin commentary
    • Capex cycle health announcements from major semiconductor manufacturers
    • Updates on orders for leading-edge lithography systems (EUV) and potential expansion into new applications

Earnings Summary, EPS Trends, and EPS Revisions Reference

  • Earnings summary (selected figures):
    • 2025-06-30: Revenue 7.6917b, Gross Profit 4.0437b, Operating Income 3.1379b, EBITDA 3.6495b, Net Income 2.6762b, Diluted EPS 6.00
    • 2025-03-31: Net Income 2.355b; Diluted EPS 6.84
    • 2024-12-31: Net Income 2.693b; Diluted EPS 5.28
    • 2024-09-30: Net Income 2.0765b; Diluted EPS 4.01
    • 2024-06-30: Net Income 1.5779b; Diluted EPS 3.11
  • EPS Trend highlights:
    • Current 0q: 5.33 (with recent 7d/30d variations around 5.33–5.34)
    • +1q: 6.73
    • 0y: 23.93
    • +1y: 25.42
  • EPS Revisions highlights:
    • 0q: modest near-term upgrades (1 upgrade in last 7 days and 30 days)
    • 0y: more mixed revisions with a couple of upgrades then downgrades in the 30–90 day window
    • +1y: more downgrades in the 30- and 90-day window, implying slower longer-term consensus

Notes on Data Use

  • All figures are provided by you or derived from the data blocks you supplied.
  • The three price-target lines are plotted as requested (Low, Median, High) and extended 30 days into the future from today’s date.
  • The price-target framework (Short/Mid/Long) is structured to reflect a base-case, upside, and downside scenario using the documented targets. If you’d prefer different horizon mapping (e.g., 6 months or 24 months) I can reframe accordingly.

If you’d like, I can turn this into a more formal investor-ready report (PDF-style) with executive summary bullet points, a one-page quick view, and slide-ready charts.

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