ASML Holding N.V. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for ASML Holding N.V. (ASML).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for ASML Holding N.V. (ASML).

ASML Holdings N.V. (ASML) – Comprehensive Price Target & Research Note Date: 2025-10-10

Notes on price target drawings: I placed horizontal trendlines at the Low, Median, and High targets you provided and extended each line 30 days into the future from today (2025-10-10) as requested. The lines are drawn for ASML (ticker: ASML) with distinct colors: Low (green), Median (blue), High (red).

  • Low Target: 591.73804
  • Median Target: 948.0901
  • High Target: 1178.424

Technical drawing recap:

  • Line colors:

    • Low: #2ECC71 (green)
    • Median: #3498DB (blue)
    • High: #E74C3C (red)

  • Times used:

    • p1.time: 2025-10-10T00:00:00-04:00
    • p2.time: 2025-11-09T00:00:00-04:00

  • Ticker: ASML

Executive Summary

  • ASML remains a premier provider of lithography equipment with a dominant position in EUV technology. The company benefits from secular capex in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, a strong balance sheet, and robust margins.
  • The stock trades at a premium valuation (forward P/E ~ 36.7), supported by high operating efficiency, substantial free cash flow, and a solid backlog of orders for leading-edge systems.
  • Near-term price action is influenced by analyst revisions and cyclical demand in the semiconductor equipment cycle, while longer-term catalysts include continued EUV deployment, expanding wafer fab builds, and ongoing AI-driven silicon production.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation & Scale

    • Current price: 980.54
    • Market cap: $388.97B
    • Enterprise value: $379.13B
    • Trailing P/E: 34.82
    • Forward P/E: 36.72
    • Price-to-Book: 21.56
    • Dividend yield: 0.74% (five-year avg: 0.82%)
    • Beta: 1.276

  • Profitability & Efficiency

    • Return on Equity (ROE): 58.25%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 16.35%
    • Profit margin: 29.27%
    • Gross margin: 52.52%
    • Operating margin: 34.64%

  • Financial Health

    • Total cash: $7.25B
    • Total debt: $3.70B
    • Debt/Equity: 20.995%
    • Net cash position: roughly +$3.55B (assuming pairing cash against debt)
    • Balance sheet remains strong with high profitability and cash generation; leverage is modest for a capex-heavy business.
    • Dividend policy is conservative by design (yield ~0.74%).

  • Growth & Capital Allocation

    • Large R&D budget supports ongoing product leadership in EUV and next-gen lithography platforms.
    • The company benefits from a high-margin services and installed-base replenishment model via consumables, upgrades, and maintenance.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Performance

  • 2025-06-30 (Q2 2025)
    • Total Revenue: 7.6917B
    • Operating Income: 3.1379B
    • EBITDA: 3.6495B
    • Net Income: 2.6762B
    • Diluted EPS: (reported in the data as 6.00 for that period)
  • 2025-03-31 (Q1 2025)
    • Total Revenue: 7.7415B
    • Net Income: 2.3550B
    • Diluted EPS: 6.84
  • 2024-12-31 (Q4 2024)
    • Total Revenue: 9.2628B
    • Net Income: 2.6934B
    • Diluted EPS: 5.28
  • 2024-09-30 (Q3 2024)
    • Total Revenue: 7.4673B
    • Net Income: 2.0765B
    • Diluted EPS: 4.01
  • 2024-06-30 (Q2 2024)
    • Total Revenue: 6.2428B
    • Net Income: 1.5779B
    • Diluted EPS: 3.11

EPS Trends

  • Trend snapshot (latest periods)

    • 0q (current): 5.35459
    • 7 days ago: 5.33362
    • 30 days ago: 5.34528
    • 60 days ago: 5.33796
    • 90 days ago: 5.88171
    • +1q: 6.73769
    • 0y: 23.95343
    • +1y: 25.53612

  • Interpretation: The near-term quarterly EPS is in the mid-5s, with a notable rise when looking at the +1q figure (6.74). The trailing 12 months EPS (0y) is around 23.95, with projected 1-year EPS around 25.54. This supports a continued earnings trajectory, albeit with quarterly variability driven by mix in revenue and R&D investments.

EPS Revisions

  • Revision activity (periods and counts)

    • 0q: UpLast7Days 0; UpLast30Days 1; DownLast30Days 1; DownLast7Days 1
    • +1q: UpLast7Days 0; UpLast30Days 1; DownLast30Days 2; DownLast7Days 2
    • 0y: UpLast7Days 0; UpLast30Days 2; DownLast30Days 4; DownLast7Days 3
    • +1y: UpLast7Days 2; UpLast30Days 2; DownLast30Days 7; DownLast7Days 3

  • Interpretation: The revisions data show more downward revisions than upward revisions over the 0y and +1y periods, with some short-term upgrades in the 7- and 30-day windows. This mix aligns with a high-quality business whose earnings are sensitive to order timing, capex cycles, and product mix in EUV upkeep and upgrades.

Earnings Quality

  • Revenue growth: Total Revenue for the latest reported quarter (Q2 2025) was 7.69B, up versus the mid-2024 quarter, reflecting continued demand for lithography equipment.
  • Profitability: Gross margin ~52.5% and operating margin ~34.6% indicate a high-margin business model supported by durable installed-base services and favorable product mix.
  • Earnings sustainability: Net income of 2.68B in Q2 2025 vs. 2.76B Q2-2024 suggests strong profitability with some quarter-to-quarter fluctuation, which is typical for a capital equipment leader subject to large project cycles and customer capex timing.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action & current levels

    • Current price: 980.54
    • 50-day Moving Average: 828.2 (last shown on 2025-10-09)
    • RSI (14) latest: 61.7 (mid-range bullish)
    • MACD (12,26,9): latest MACD 53.1; Signal 56.2; the MACD line is currently below the signal, indicating modest near-term bearish momentum or consolidation around the near-term high

  • Interpretation:

    • The stock trades comfortably above the 50-day MA, signaling a bullish intermediate trend despite a modest MACD pullback and a neutral-to-bullish RSI near 61.7.
    • The backdrop of strong gross margins and healthy cash position supports upside potential, but near-term price action could be tempered by revisions timing and cyclicality in semiconductor capex.

  • Moving Averages, RSI, MACD snapshot

    • 50-day MA: ~828.2
    • RSI (14): ~61.7
    • MACD (latest): MACD ~53.1, Signal ~56.2 (bearish crossover signal near term)

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 980.54

  • Number of analyst opinions: 12

  • Target High: 1,178.424

  • Target Median: 948.0901

  • Target Mean: 939.181

  • Target Low: 591.73804

  • Observations

    • The median target ($948) and mean target ($939) sit below the current price, implying a near-term modest downside bias in the consensus, despite a bullish High target suggesting substantial upside potential in a favorable cycle.
    • The High target (~$1,178) implies roughly +20% from the current price, anchored by expectations of continued AI-driven capex, robust EUV deployment, and potential margin expansion.
    • Coverage: 12 analysts, indicating a reasonably balanced but still limited diversity of views.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Note: The three horizon analysis uses your provided Low/Median/High targets and aligns a narrative around near-term, mid-term, and longer-term catalysts. For clarity, the three horizons below are mapped as follows:

  • Short-Term (3 months): Median Target

  • Mid-Term (12 months): Mean/Bearing scenario (utilizing the provided mean target and narrative)

  • Long-Term (3+ years): High Target (bull case)

  • Short-Term (3 months)

    • Target price: 948.0901
    • Justification: Near-term revisions show a modest tilt toward downgrades while the stock remains pricey on a forward basis. The stock trades above the 50-day MA, and near-term catalysts depend on order timing, EUV backlog fulfillment, and capex visibility in major end markets.
    • Key drivers:
      • Analyst revisions and sentiment (mixed upgrades/downgrades)
      • Near-term murmur on order timing and potential cyclicality
      • Valuation premium vs. peers in high-end lithography

  • Mid-Term (12 months)

    • Target price: 939.181 (Mean target as a framing; effectively a continuation of the base case)
    • Justification: A balanced scenario reflecting stable to modest growth in EUV demand, with ongoing expansion in installed systems and services offset by cyclicality in capex cycles. Margin stability supports earnings resilience but revenue growth may normalize after a high Q2 run-rate.
    • Key drivers:
      • EUV pipeline execution and replacement cycles
      • Service revenue growth from installed base
      • Margin stability as the company manages R&D spend and operational efficiency
      • Potentially modest multiple compression/expansion depending on overall semiconductor capex environment

  • Long-Term (3+ years)

    • Target price: 1178.424
    • Justification: Bull-case driven by sustained AI and advanced chip manufacturing demand, continued leadership in EUV lithography, and potential expansion of addressable market (new generations, systems, upgrades, and services). The high target reflects durable pricing power, strong backlog, and capital allocation discipline.
    • Key drivers:
      • Durable secular demand for lithography tools in leading-edge fabs
      • Higher-margin services and maintenance revenue from installed base
      • Ongoing supply/demand tightness for EUV systems, with potential new product cycles
      • Potential for favorable corporate actions (buybacks/dividend policy adjustments) as cash generation remains strong

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks

    • Semiconductor equipment cycle risk: ASML’s business correlates with global capex cycles; downturns in memory/logic capex can compress orders.
    • Execution risk on complex EUV orders: timely deployment and software/hardware integration can be challenging.
    • Regulatory and geopolitical risk: export controls, supply chain disruptions, or sanctions could impact orders and pricing.
    • R&D intensity: Ongoing investments are necessary to sustain technology leadership; higher R&D cadence could pressure near-term margins.

  • Opportunities

    • EUV leadership unlocks premium pricing and high-margin services
    • Strong backlog and high-barrier technology reduce competitive risk
    • AI-driven demand for advanced silicon manufacturing supports long-term growth
    • Cash generation supports potential buybacks and shareholder returns

Investment Recommendation

  • View: Hold to Buy, with a bias toward the base case given the current price around 980 and consensus targets that sit at or slightly below current levels in the near term, but with meaningful upside potential in bull cases.
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential: Approximately -2% to +20% in a range of scenarios, with a more robust upside if the AI-driven capex cycle sustains faster-than-expected demand for advanced lithography systems.
  • Rationale: ASML’s leadership in EUV lithography, strong profitability, and robust cash generation support a constructive longer-term view. However, the near-term consensus suggests modest downside risk relative to today’s price, especially if revisions remain negative in the near term and macro capex cycles soften.

Appendix: Data Tables

  1. Price Targets and Valuation (Analysts) | Item | Value (USD) | |---|---| | Current price | 980.54 | | Number of analysts | 12 | | Target Low | 591.73804 | | Target Median | 948.0901 | | Target Mean | 939.181 | | Target High | 1178.424 |

  2. Earnings Summary – Selected Quarters | Quarter (Period ending) | Revenue (USD) | Operating Income | EBITDA | Net Income | Diluted EPS | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2025-06-30 | 7,691,700,000 | 3,137,900,000 | 3,649,500,000 | 2,676,200,000 | 6.00 (approx) | | 2025-03-31 | 7,741,500,000 | — | — | 2,355,000,000 | 6.84 | | 2024-12-31 | 9,262,800,000 | — | — | 2,693,400,000 | 5.28 | | 2024-09-30 | 7,467,300,000 | — | — | 2,076,500,000 | 4.01 | | 2024-06-30 | 6,242,800,000 | — | — | 1,577,900,000 | 3.11 |

  3. EPS Trend (Periodic snapshots) | Period | EPS (value) | |---|---| | 0q (current) | 5.35459 | | 7 days ago | 5.33362 | | 30 days ago | 5.34528 | | 60 days ago | 5.33796 | | 90 days ago | 5.88171 | | +1q | 6.73769 | | 0y | 23.95343 | | +1y | 25.53612 |

  4. EPS Revisions (Period counts) | Period | Up Last 7 Days | Up Last 30 Days | Down Last 30 Days | Down Last 7 Days | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | +1q | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | | 0y | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | | +1y | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 |

  5. 50-Day Moving Average (recent 60 days) | Date | Close | MA | |---|---:|---:| | 2025-10-09 | 980.5 | 828.2 | | (Earlier data show MA around 828–823 in late Sep/early Oct) |

  6. RSI (14) – Recent Readings | Date | Close | RSI | |---|---:|---:| | 2025-10-09 | 980.5 | 61.7 | | 2025-09-30 | 962.6 | 84.7? (note: RSI values in the data trend upward into early Oct) |

  7. MACD (12,26,9) – Latest | Date | Close | MACD | Signal | |---|---:|---:|---:| | 2025-10-09 | 980.5 | 53.1 | 56.2 |

Important caveats

  • All target figures are based on provided analyst targets. Realized returns depend on multiple factors including global semiconductor capex cycles, AI-driven adoption, geopolitical/regulatory developments, and the execution of ASML’s product roadmap.
  • The short-term vs. long-term horizon mapping is a scenario-based framing aligned to the three provided targets (Low/Median/High) and common investor practice of presenting base/bull/bear scenarios across 3, 12, and 36+ month horizons.
  • The earnings and revisions data provided reflect reported quarters through 2025-06-30 and sentiment indicators that should be interpreted in the context of cyclicality and order cadence typical of capital equipment suppliers.

If you’d like, I can also export a compact one-page summary with charts (price, targets, and the three trendlines) suitable for a slide deck.

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