Amazon.com, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN).

Below is a comprehensive, data-driven analysis for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) as of 2025-10-07. I’ve drawn three horizontal price targets on the chart (Low, Median, High) and provide a detailed price target analysis with drivers, risks, and an investment view.

Horizontal Price Target Lines (drawn on chart)

  • Low Target: 230.00 (green)
    • Line: AMZN, from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
  • Median Target: 265.00 (orange)
    • Line: AMZN, from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
  • High Target: 306.00 (red)
    • Line: AMZN, from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06

Executive Summary

  • Current price: 220.90
  • Price targets (analyst consensus): Low 230, Median 265, High 306 (mean 266.56)
  • Implied upside vs current: ~4% to Low, ~20% to Median, ~38% to High
  • The stock trades at a high-quality growth premium: solid gross margins (~49.6%), double-digit operating margins (~11.4%), and a robust ROE (~24.8%), but with a relatively high valuation (trailing P/E ~33.7, forward P/E ~35.9).
  • Near-term setup: RSI around 28, MACD negative, and price below the 50-day moving average imply near-term weakness but an oversold condition that could support a rebound if EPS revisions turn positive. Analyst revisions show more upgrades than downgrades, supporting upside potential over the next 6–12 months.
  • Longer-term thesis: AWS, online retail growth, and rising advertising/alternative revenue streams provide multi-year upside, with potential multiple-expansion if earnings growth remains durable and cost discipline improves margins.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation snapshot (as of 2025-10-07)
    • Market Cap: 2.387e12
    • Enterprise Value: 2.405e12
    • Trailing P/E: 33.67
    • Forward P/E: 35.92
    • Price-to-Book: 7.06
    • Debt/Equity: 47.81%
    • Total Cash: 93.18b
    • Total Debt: 159.57b
    • ROE: 24.77%
    • ROA: 7.70%
    • Profit Margin: 10.54%
    • Gross Margin: 49.6%
    • Operating Margin: 11.43%
    • Beta: 1.281
  • Financial health indicators
    • Leverage remains meaningful (debt load vs. cash on hand), but the company generates substantial operating cash flow, supporting flexibility in deleveraging or product/investment initiatives.
    • Margins are solid on an operating basis, with room for uplift via AWS/cloud efficiency, advertising monetization, and cost control across SG&A.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Summary (latest quarter shown: 2025-06-30)
    • Total Revenue: 167.702b
    • Gross Profit: 86.893b
    • Cost of Revenue: 80.809b
    • Operating Income: 21.374b
    • EBITDA: 36.6b
    • Net Income (Continuing Operations, Net of Minority Interest): 18.164b
    • Diluted EPS: 1.68
    • Basic EPS: 1.71
  • Normalized measures (for context)
    • Normalized Income (latest): 17.19b
    • Reconciled Depreciation: 12.23b
    • Reconciled Cost of Revenue: 80.81b
    • Total Unusual Items (latest period): 1.119b
    • Net Income (trailing normalization trend): 18.164b
  • EPS Trend
    • Current 0q EPS: 1.548
    • 1q Ahead (next quarter estimate): 1.843
    • 0y (trailing 12 months): 6.618
    • 1y (next 12 months expected): 7.584
    • 7-day/30/60/90-day trend shows mild quarterly improvement, with a meaningful year-over-year uplift embedded in the next-year estimate.
  • EPS Revisions
    • 0q: Up Last 7d = 1, Up Last 30d = 2, Down Last 30d = 1, Down Last 7d = 0
    • +1q: Up Last 7d = 1, Up Last 30d = 3, Down Last 30d = 0, Down Last 7d = 0
    • 0y: Up Last 7d = 1, Up Last 30d = 6, Down Last 30d = 0, Down Last 7d = 0
    • +1y: Up Last 7d = 1, Up Last 30d = 6, Down Last 30d = 0, Down Last 7d = 0
    • Interpretation: Analysts have been predominantly raising estimates over the past quarter-to-year, with upgrades outnumbering downgrades, signaling improving sentiment around future profitability.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action vs. trend
    • Current price (220.9) sits below the 50-day moving average (around 226–227 recently), suggesting near-term softness and potential for a bounce if oversold conditions resolve.
  • Moving Averages
    • 50-Day MA: ~227 (late Sep/early Oct readings show MA near 226–227)
    • The latest price below the MA indicates a short-term bearish tilt, with potential for a mean-reversion bounce given oversold RSI.
  • RSI (14)
    • Latest RSI around 28.2 (extremely oversold). This implies a higher probability of a near-term relief rally if selling pressures fade.
  • MACD (12,26,9)
    • MACD negative with a bearish crossover (MACD below Signal). Currently not signaling a bullish reversal, but proximity to oversold RSI supports the possibility of a short-term rebound if fundamentals/monetary signals improve.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Analyst coverage
    • Number of analysts: 62
  • Price targets
    • Current Price: 220.90
    • Target Low: 230.00
    • Target Median: 265.00
    • Target High: 306.00
    • Target Mean: 266.56
  • Interpretation
    • The mean target implies ~21% upside on a 12-month horizon, with a distribution that offers a potential ~4% floor to 230 and up to ~38% to 306.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target: 230 (Low)
  • Justification:
    • Chart support around the 230 area aligns with the provided Low Target and is consistent with a near-term oversold RSI that could limit downside to a narrow band.
    • Earnings revisions over the last 60 days show more upgrades than downgrades, suggesting a possible re-acceleration of EPS momentum, which could support a shallow bounce toward 230.
  • Key drivers:
    • Oversold condition (RSI ~28) and potential near-term catalysts from upcoming quarterly results and sentiment improvements.
    • Short-term risk is still skewed to consolidation or a modest bounce rather than a move above 235–240 without a clear earnings beat.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: 265 (Median)
  • Justification:
    • Median target sits near 12-month consensus and is supported by an improving EPS trajectory (positive trend in revisions, 1y forward EPS estimates rising) and a robust gross margin base.
    • Revenue growth drivers include AWS/cloud, advertising, and e-commerce efficiency; profitability tailwinds may emerge from operating leverage and SG&A discipline as scale remains favorable.
  • Key drivers:
    • Upward revisions trend (0q/+1q/0y/+1y show more upgrades than downgrades).
    • Multiple expansion potential if the market re-rates AMZN on durable earnings growth and cash flow generation.
    • Sustained gross margin resilience and monetization of new product/ads platforms.
  • Risks:
    • Macro headwinds, competitive pressure on margins, and any moderation in AWS growth or ad spend could temper upside.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target: 306 (High)
  • Justification:
    • The high target embodies the potential for substantial margin expansion and durable, secular growth in cloud, advertising, and digital services as Amazon expands its ecosystem and monetizes platforms more efficiently.
    • Continued scale advantages and product diversification could unlock higher free cash flow and share-repurchase capacity, enabling multiple expansion over time.
  • Key drivers:
    • AWS and adjacent high-margin services maintain growth and efficiency gains.
    • Advertising revenue expansion and retail ecosystem monetization (fulfillment, logistics, Prime ecosystem) sustain high-margin contributions.
    • AI-enabled productivity and cloud products may deliver incremental pricing power.
  • Risks:
    • Prolonged macro weakness, regulatory scrutiny, and execution risk in large-scale cost control or capacity expansion.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks
    • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny in major markets could constrain growth or force structural changes.
    • Macroeconomic softness could impact consumer demand and ad spend; AWS growth feasibility could face slower-than-expected expansion.
    • High debt load relative to cash reserves, though mitigated by strong operating cash flow.
  • Key Opportunities
    • AWS/cloud growth remains a durable, high-margin engine; continued leadership in cloud AI services could boost revenue and margins.
    • Advertising segment expansion provides a high-margin growth vector beyond core e-commerce.
    • Operating leverage and cost discipline could improve operating margins, supporting a higher valuation multiple.

Investment Recommendation

  • Stance: Hold with a constructive bias toward upside over the next 12–24 months
    • Why: The current price action shows near-term weakness aligned with oversold conditions (RSI ~28, MACD negative), but revisions point to a more constructive earnings trajectory ahead. The analyst consensus targets imply meaningful upside from today’s price if the company sustains earnings growth and margin discipline.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months)
    • Low scenario (to 230): ~4% upside to the Low Target
    • Base scenario (to 265): ~20–21% upside to Median Target
    • Bull scenario (to 306): ~38% upside to High Target
  • Practical view: A patient approach may be warranted. If the stock finds support and the EPS revision trend remains positive, risk-reward favors a gradual overweight toward AMZN, particularly on any confirmatory upside in AWS growth or advertising monetization. In weaker risk-off environments, the oversold condition could produce a short-term relief rally.

Key Data Points (selected tables)

  • Valuation Snapshot
    • Metric: Value
    • Current Price: 220.90
    • Market Cap: 2.387e12
    • Enterprise Value: 2.405e12
    • Trailing P/E: 33.67
    • Forward P/E: 35.92
    • P/B: 7.06
    • ROE: 24.77%
    • ROA: 7.70%
    • Profit Margin: 10.54%
    • Gross Margin: 49.6%
    • Operating Margin: 11.43%
    • Debt/Equity: 47.81%
    • Total Cash: 93.18b
    • Total Debt: 159.57b
    • Beta: 1.281
  • Earnings Snapshot (latest quarter)
    • Total Revenue: 167.702b
    • Gross Profit: 86.893b
    • Cost of Revenue: 80.809b
    • Operating Income: 21.374b
    • EBITDA: 36.6b
    • Net Income (Continuing Ops): 18.164b
    • Diluted EPS: 1.68
  • EPS Trend (selected)
    • 0q: 1.548
    • +1q: 1.843
    • 0y: 6.618
    • +1y: 7.584
  • EPS Revisions (selected)
    • 0q Up Last7d: 1; Up Last30d: 2; Down Last30d: 1; Down Last7d: 0
    • +1q Up Last7d: 1; Up Last30d: 3; Down Last30d: 0; Down Last7d: 0
    • 0y Up Last7d: 1; Up Last30d: 6; Down Last30d: 0; Down Last7d: 0
    • +1y Up Last7d: 1; Up Last30d: 6; Down Last30d: 0; Down Last7d: 0
  • Technical Indicators (highlights)
    • 50-Day MA: ~227 (late Sep/early Oct)
    • RSI (14): ~28.2 (extremely oversold as of 2025-10-06)
    • MACD: Negative, with MACD below Signal (as of 2025-10-06)

Notes on Interpretation

  • The three drawn price-target lines provide a visual frame for risk-reward: 230 (near-term/low-side support), 265 (base case), and 306 (capability of upside on a stronger growth trajectory).
  • The discrepancy between current price (220.9) and the median target (265) implies potential upside if the EPS revisions maintain an upward trajectory and if AWS/ad revenue monetization translates into margin expansion.
  • The oversold RSI combined with improving revisions suggests a setup where near-term downside risk is capped, with a higher probability of a rebound if sentiment improves.

If you’d like, I can provide a chart image with the three horizontal lines plotted at 230, 265, and 306, along with annotated notes, or tailor the target framework (e.g., scenario-based valuations, probabilistic upside) to your preferred approach.

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