Amazon.com, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN).

Here is a comprehensive, data-driven Analyst note for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) as of 2025-10-10. Per your drawing instructions, I’ve plotted horizontal lines for the Low, Median, and High price targets and extended them 30 days into the future.

Drawing status

  • Low Target (230): drawn in green, extended to 2025-11-09
  • Median Target (265): drawn in orange, extended to 2025-11-09
  • High Target (306): drawn in red, extended to 2025-11-09
  • Ticker: AMZN

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: AMZN remains a diversified, high-quality growth platform with AWS strength, expanding advertising, and a robust consumer ecosystem. With a solid balance sheet and improving but still sensitive near-term earnings dynamics, the stock trades at a premium multiple but offers optionality from AWS, ad revenue ramp, and retail margin expansion. Near-term catalysts include positive EPS revisions and a potential beat on profitability metrics, while valuation remains elevated versus many peers.
  • Price outlook: Given the current price around 227.74, the stock sits above critical near-term support around the 50-day moving average (~226 as of early Oct 2025) and below the consensus targets. Upside potential to ~265 (median target) and ~306 (high target) over the next 3–12 months is supported by earnings revisions and the long-run growth drivers, but near-term momentum has shown some caution signs (MACD turns negative, RSI roughly mid-40s).

Fundamental Analysis

  • Key metrics (USD unless noted)
    • Current price: 227.74
    • Market cap: 2,428,827,074,560
    • Enterprise value: 2,468,341,612,544
    • Trailing P/E: 34.77
    • Forward P/E: 37.03
    • Price to Book: 7.27
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 24.77%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 7.70%
    • Profit margins: 10.54%
    • Gross margins: 49.61%
    • Operating margins: 11.43%
    • Debt to equity: 47.81%
    • Total cash: 93.18B
    • Total debt: 159.57B
    • Dividend yield: n/a
    • Beta: 1.28
  • Observations
    • Valuation is elevated (P/E in the mid-30s, P/B > 7), consistent with market expectations for a diversified mega-cap with AWS strength and growth velocity.
    • Solid profitability with expanding gross margins and healthy operating margin supports earnings durability.
    • Balance sheet is sizable, with substantial cash and debt; leverage is moderate by tech mega-cap standards.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Performance

  • Summary of normalized income and key profitability metrics (selected quarters)
    • 2025-06-30: Normalized income ≈ 17.19B; Net income (continuing ops) ≈ 18.16B; Diluted EPS ≈ 1.68; Basic EPS ≈ 1.71; Revenue ≈ 167.70B; EBITDA ≈ 36.60B; Operating income ≈ 21.37B
    • 2025-03-31: Normalized income ≈ 14.93B; Net income ≈ 17.13B; Diluted EPS ≈ 1.59; Revenue ≈ 155.67B; EBITDA ≈ 36.48B
    • 2024-12-31: Normalized income ≈ 19.49B; Net income ≈ 20.00B; Diluted EPS ≈ 1.86; Revenue ≈ 187.79B; EBITDA ≈ 38.55B
    • 2024-09-30: Normalized income ≈ 15.34B; Net income ≈ 15.33B; Diluted EPS ≈ 1.43; Revenue ≈ 158.88B; EBITDA ≈ 32.08B
    • 2024-06-30: Normalized income ≈ 13.45B; Net income ≈ 13.49B; Diluted EPS ≈ 1.26; Revenue ≈ 147.98B; EBITDA ≈ 27.87B
  • Takeaways
    • Normalized income showed a peak in 2024-12-31 and again in 2025-06-30, illustrating quarterly variability around a high-teens to low-twenties billions of dollars range.
    • Net income to equity holders was robust across these quarters, with Diluted EPS ranging from about 1.26 to 1.86 in the reported windows.
    • Revenue trended higher in 2024-12-31 and 2025-06-30, consistent with an ongoing scale-up in AWS, advertising, and ecommerce segments.

EPS Trend

  • Trend snapshot (quarterly and YoY)
    • Current 0q EPS: 1.548
    • +1q EPS: 1.844
    • 0y (trailing 4-quarter) EPS: 6.6185
    • +1y (forward 4-quarter) EPS: 7.5785
  • Interpretation
    • The near-term EPS (quarterly) shows a meaningful improvement from the prior period, while the trailing and forward-looking numbers imply a mid-to-high single-digit to low-teens annual EPS trajectory when factoring ongoing growth and cost discipline.
    • The EPS revisions data (see next subsection) shows net positive revisions across 0q, +1q, 0y, and +1y windows.

EPS Revisions

  • Revision activity (counts of analyst changes)
    • 0q: UpLast7days = 1; UpLast30days = 2; DownLast30days = 1; DownLast7Days = 0
    • +1q: UpLast7days = 1; UpLast30days = 3; DownLast30days = 0; DownLast7Days = 0
    • 0y: UpLast7days = 1; UpLast30days = 6; DownLast30days = 0; DownLast7Days = 0
    • +1y: UpLast7days = 1; UpLast30days = 6; DownLast30days = 0; DownLast7Days = 0
  • Interpretation
    • Net revisions skew positive across both near-term and longer horizons, suggesting a more favorable view among analysts recently. This supports a constructive view for near-to-medium-term price performance.

Technical Analysis

  • Current price action
    • Price: 227.74
    • 50-day Moving Average (MA): ≈ 226.0 (last observed ~2025-10-09: Close 227.7, MA 226.0)
    • RSI (14): latest ≈ 44.5 (mid-40s, modestly bearish/neutral)
    • MACD (12,26,9): latest MACD ≈ -1.2, Signal ≈ -1.6 (bearish momentum, though the MACD/Signal values have shown variability around the observed window)
  • Moving averages and trend
    • Price sits just above the 50-day MA, indicating a shallow pullback/neutral trend with some near-term support at the MA level.
  • Momentum and sentiment
    • RSI in the low-40s suggests room to move higher before becoming overbought; MACD negative indicates near-term momentum has been softer, with potential for a reversal if fundamentals and catalysts align.
  • Key levels (from data)
    • Support: around 226–228 (near the 50-day MA and the current price vicinity)
    • Immediate resistance: around 265 (median target line) and 306 (high target line)

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current consensus metrics
    • Current price: 227.74
    • Number of analyst opinions: 62
    • Target High: 306.00
    • Target Low: 230.00
    • Target Median: 265.00
    • Target Mean: 266.56
  • Interpretation
    • The consensus implies ~17–19% upside to the median target and around 28% upside to the high target from the current price, depending on the trajectory of earnings revisions and growth drivers.
    • With 62 analysts covering AMZN, the dispersion between low and high targets highlights the range of expectations on AWS growth, advertising ramp, and consumer demand.
  • Potential catalysts
    • AWS performance and margin expansion
    • Advertising revenue growth and monetization improvements
    • E-commerce, Prime member growth, and international expansion
    • Operating leverage in fulfillment and logistics efficiency
    • Any upside on profitability guidance or cash flow expansion

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: around 265 (median target); mean ~266–270 range
    • Justification: Positive EPS revisions across 0q and +1q windows; near-term profitability stability; current price near the 50-day MA provides a technical base; analysts’ consensus targets imply potential move toward the median/high end as earnings expectations normalize.
    • Key drivers: Analyst revisions turning positive; improving gross and operating margins; cash generation; AWS strength continuing to support profitability; any favorable guidance for the next quarter.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: around 265–306 range (median to high)
    • Justification: Sustained revenue growth in AWS and advertising; margin improvement in core segments; large-scale cloud demand and digital advertising tailwinds; robust cash position supports buybacks or capital deployment that can be incremental to equity value.
    • Key drivers: AWS AWS growth/margin expansion, ad revenue acceleration, improving operating efficiency, potential capital returns signal.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 306+ (base line high); potential upside scenario to 330–380 under stronger-than-expected growth/delivery of cross-segment leverage
    • Justification: If AWS maintains leadership in cloud, Prime member ecosystem remains sticky, and advertising ramps continue, the profit pool can expand over multi-year horizons with continued efficiency gains and scale.
    • Key drivers: Structural growth in cloud computing, expanding ad revenue mix, ongoing dominance in e-commerce logistics network, potential innovations in AI and marketplace monetization, and capital deployment efficiency.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major risks
    • Macroeconomic slowdowns impacting consumer discretionary spending and e-commerce demand
    • AWS growth/price pressure or margin compression from competition
    • Execution risk in fulfillment and supply chain costs
    • Regulatory scrutiny or taxation changes impacting big-tech operations
  • Key opportunities
    • Accelerating AWS and advertising revenue growth
    • Operational efficiency and margin expansion across segments
    • Cash generation enabling strategic investments and capital returns
    • Global e-commerce growth in emerging markets and Prime ecosystem expansion

Investment Recommendation

  • View: Hold to Moderate Buy
    • Rationale: The stock trades with a premium multiple but displays upside potential to the 265–306 area based on analyst guidance and EPS revisions. Near-term momentum shows some caution (MACD recently negative, RSI mid-40s), but the EPS trend improves and revisions skew positive. A 12–24 month horizon could yield meaningful upside if AWS, advertising, and e-commerce growth accelerates and profitability drivers materialize.
    • Expected return potential (12–24 months): roughly 12%–30% upside to the median/high targets, with risk to the downside if near-term earnings miss or macro shocks occur.

Tables: Selected Data (formatting for reference)

  • Key Metrics (USD)
  • Analyst Targets
  • Earnings Summary (Selected quarters)
  • EPS Trend
  • EPS Revisions
  • Technical Indicators (latest values)
  1. Key Metrics
  • Table: AMZN – Key Fundamentals
  • Values (USD unless noted)
  • Current price: 227.74
  • Market cap: 2,428,827,074,560
  • Enterprise value: 2,468,341,612,544
  • Trailing P/E: 34.769
  • Forward P/E: 37.031
  • Price to Book: 7.273
  • ROE: 24.77%
  • ROA: 7.70%
  • Profit margin: 10.54%
  • Gross margin: 49.61%
  • Operating margin: 11.43%
  • Debt to equity: 47.81%
  • Total cash: 93,180,000,000
  • Total debt: 159,570,000,000
  • Dividend yield: n/a
  • Beta: 1.281
  1. Analyst Targets
  • Table: Analyst Targets (as of 2025-10-10)
  • Current price: 227.74
  • Number of analysts: 62
  • Target High: 306.00
  • Target Low: 230.00
  • Target Median: 265.00
  • Target Mean: 266.56
  1. Recent Earnings Summary (selected items, billions unless noted)
  • Table: Earnings Summary (quarterly)
  • 2025-06-30: Normalized Income ≈ 17.19B; Net Income ≈ 18.16B; Diluted EPS ≈ 1.68; Basic EPS ≈ 1.71; Revenue ≈ 167.70B; EBITDA ≈ 36.60B; Operating Income ≈ 21.37B
  • 2025-03-31: Normalized Income ≈ 14.93B; Net Income ≈ 17.13B; Diluted EPS ≈ 1.59; Basic EPS ≈ 1.62; Revenue ≈ 155.67B; EBITDA ≈ 36.48B
  • 2024-12-31: Normalized Income ≈ 19.49B; Net Income ≈ 20.00B; Diluted EPS ≈ 1.86; Basic EPS ≈ 1.90; Revenue ≈ 187.79B; EBITDA ≈ 38.55B
  • 2024-09-30: Normalized Income ≈ 15.34B; Net Income ≈ 15.33B; Diluted EPS ≈ 1.43; Basic EPS ≈ 1.46; Revenue ≈ 158.88B; EBITDA ≈ 32.08B
  • 2024-06-30: Normalized Income ≈ 13.45B; Net Income ≈ 13.49B; Diluted EPS ≈ 1.26; Basic EPS ≈ 1.29; Revenue ≈ 147.98B; EBITDA ≈ 27.87B
  1. EPS Trend
  • Table: EPS Trend (USD)
  • 0q: current 1.54822; 7 days ago 1.54822; 30 days ago 1.53959; 60 days ago 1.54336; 90 days ago 1.5134
  • +1q: 1.84406; 1.84333; 1.84066; 1.84285; 1.80987
  • 0y: 6.6185; 6.618; 6.59293; 6.56397; 6.22703
  • +1y: 7.57854; 7.58221; 7.53847; 7.53382; 7.30774
  1. EPS Revisions
  • Table: EPS Revisions (counts)
  • 0q: UpLast7days 1; UpLast30days 2; DownLast30days 1; DownLast7Days 0
  • +1q: UpLast7days 1; UpLast30days 3; DownLast30days 0; DownLast7Days 0
  • 0y: UpLast7days 1; UpLast30days 6; DownLast30days 0; DownLast7Days 0
  • +1y: UpLast7days 1; UpLast30days 6; DownLast30days 0; DownLast7Days 0
  1. Technical Indicators (latest)
  • 50-day MA: ~226.0 (as of 2025-10-09)
  • RSI (14): ~44.5 (latest)
  • MACD (12,26,9): MACD ≈ -1.2; Signal ≈ -1.6 (bearish momentum)

Notes on the price targets and lines

  • The chart now includes three horizontal lines:
    • Low Target: 230 (green)
    • Median Target: 265 (orange)
    • High Target: 306 (red)
  • Lines are extended 30 days into the future from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09, consistent with your instruction.

Risk Disclosures

  • Valuation is elevated relative to most peers, which means upside is potentially capped without earnings surprises or margin expansion.
  • Near-term momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) show caution; a move above 265 and sustained momentum would be needed to sustain a rally toward 306.
  • Key risks include macro headwinds affecting consumer demand and competitive pressure in cloud and advertising.

Next steps

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