Amgen Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Amgen Inc. (AMGN).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Amgen Inc. (AMGN).

Below is a comprehensive AMGN (Amgen Inc.) analysis using the provided data. Horizontal price target lines have been drawn on the active chart for Low (180.00), Median (312.50), and High (405.00) targets and extended 30 days into the future.

  • Low Target line: green (#00FF00) at 180.00
  • Median Target line: blue (#0000FF) at 312.50
  • High Target line: red (#FF0000) at 405.00

These lines are extended to roughly 2025-11-09 on the chart (today is 2025-10-10).

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: AMGN trades with a conservative but reasonably solid base of profitability and cash flow, supported by a high-quality dividend yield and a robust operating margin. The stock is currently modestly above the 50-day moving average, with solid near-term momentum as indicated by MACD and RSI readings. However, leverage remains elevated, and EPS revisions show notable downward pressure in some periods, which warrants a cautious stance.
  • Price outlook: Trading around 295.43, AMGN has a low downside risk scenario to 180 (longer-term risk) but several upside targets exist, notably a median target of 312.50 and a high target of 405.00, which imply upside potential ranging from low-to-mid teens percent to the high-30s percent over the next 12–24 months, depending on execution and market conditions.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and size
    • Current price: 295.43
    • Market cap: 159.05B
    • Enterprise value: 206.79B
    • Trailing P/E: 24.16
    • Forward P/E: 14.29
    • Price-to-book: 21.41
    • Five-year dividend yield (avg): 3.06% (current yield 3.23%)
    • Beta: 0.48 (defensive, lower-market beta)
  • Profitability and efficiency
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 0.99139 (≈99.1%)
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 0.07507 (≈7.5%)
    • Gross margin: 69.36%
    • Operating margin: 32.73%
    • Net profit margin: 18.96%
  • Capital structure and liquidity
    • Debt to equity: 756.65 (very high; read through to the balance sheet context)
    • Total cash: 8.03B
    • Total debt: 56.20B
  • Cash generation and payout
    • Dividend yield: 3.23%
    • Free cash flow quality not directly provided, but strong gross/operating margins support cash generation
  • Takeaways
    • The forward P/E of 14.29 suggests a relatively inexpensive multiple given high profitability and dividend support, but the extreme debt-to-equity ratio raises leverage risk considerations. The stock offers attractive yield but comes with balance-sheet leverage risk that could weigh on returns if earnings growth slows or debt costs rise.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Summary (latest quarter shown: 2025-06-30)
    • Net income from continuing operations: 1.432B
    • Diluted EPS: 2.65
    • Basic EPS: 2.66
    • EBITDA: 3.603B
    • EBIT: 2.262B
    • Operating revenue: 8.771B; Total revenue: 9.179B
    • Key detail: The data show both GAAP and normalized metrics across multiple periods; the latest quarter shows solid net income and EPS, with a strong EBITDA contribution.
  • EPS Trends (quarterly and annual trends provided)
    • 0q (current quarter snapshot): Diluted EPS 2.65; Basic EPS 2.66
    • +1q: Diluted EPS 3.20; Basic EPS 3.22
    • 0y: Diluted EPS 1.16; Basic EPS 1.17
    • +1y: Diluted EPS 5.22; Basic EPS 5.27
    • The trend data reflect quarter-to-quarter and year-over-year movements; the 0y/+1y lines indicate variability, with the higher 5.22 EPS in the +1y line likely incorporating period-specific items or non-GAAP adjustments.
  • EPS Revisions (analyst revisions)
    • 0q: UpLast7Days = 0; UpLast30Days = 2; DownLast30Days = 19; DownLast7Days = 2
    • +1q: UpLast7Days = 1; UpLast30Days = 3; DownLast30Days = 18; DownLast7Days = 1
    • 0y: UpLast7Days = 2; UpLast30Days = 5; DownLast30Days = 4; DownLast7Days = 0
    • +1y: UpLast7Days = 0; UpLast30Days = 3; DownLast30Days = 6; DownLast7Days = 1
    • Observation: There is notable downward revision pressure across several periods, which can temper near-term sentiment and price upside if earnings expectations are repeatedly trimmed.
  • Earnings quality
    • Revenue growth: Total revenue in the period is strong at 9.179B with operating revenue at 8.771B, indicating robust top-line health.
    • Margins: Gross margin ~69%, operating margin ~32.7%, signs of sustainable profitability.
    • Sustainability: The combination of robust gross/operating margins and a sizable dividend supports cash generation, but leverage risk remains a concern.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action and proximity to moving averages
    • Current price: 295.43
    • 50-day moving average (latest): ~286.3
    • Observation: The price sits above the 50-day MA, indicating short- to mid-term bullishness and an upward drift potential as the MA acts as dynamic support.
  • Trend indicators
    • RSI (14): 59.5 (as of 2025-10-09), indicating neutral-to-bullish momentum, not overbought.
    • MACD (12,26,9): Latest MACD 3.2 with Signal 1.2, positive and widening, consistent with bullish momentum.
  • Key levels
    • Support: The stocks appears to have a cushion above the 50-day MA, with potential intermediate support near 286–287.
    • Resistance: Immediate resistance around price highs near 300+ in the near term; longer-term resistance aligns with the 312.50 target line (median target) and the 405 line as a higher-level hurdle.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current data
    • Current price: 295.43
    • Number of analysts covering: 26
    • Target Low: 180.00
    • Target Median: 312.50
    • Target High: 405.00
    • Target Mean: 311.65
  • Interpretation
    • The median and mean targets imply modest upside from current levels, with a potential upside to around 37% to 405 (high target) if favorable conditions materialize. The low target (180) implies notable downside risk under less favorable scenarios.
    • The coverage base (26 analysts) provides a reasonable degree of consensus, though revisions data indicate a net downward bias over the last periods.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target: 312.50 (Median Target)
  • Justification: The near-term price target sits in the 312.50 area, supported by a favorable forward P/E multiple (14.29x) vs. the trailing multiple and strong profitability metrics, plus stability in cash generation and dividend yield. The stock currently trades at 295.43, suggesting ~5–6% near-term upside if the median target is realized.
  • Key drivers:
    • Valuation support: Forward P/E of 14.29x relative to robust margins and cash flow.
    • Technical setup: Price above the 50-day MA with supportive MACD and RSI readings.
    • Stabilizing fundamentals: Solid operating margins and revenue base in the latest quarter.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: Median 312.50; High 405.00
  • Justification: If earnings momentum improves and revisions stabilize, the stock could trend toward the 312.50 midpoint or higher. The high target of 405.00 suggests a potential 37% upside if a favorable environment and pipeline progress materialize.
  • Key drivers:
    • Valuation tailwinds: Higher interest in healthcare large-cap names with strong dividend yields.
    • Earnings trajectory: With forward-looking profitability intact, and stable cash flows, multiple expansion could occur if growth remains resilient.
    • Catalysts: Potential drug approvals, label expansions, or pipeline milestones that enhance growth visibility.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target: High target 405.00 as a possible ceiling in the provided set; longer duration could see additional upside if there is meaningful growth in the portfolio and ongoing cash generation.
  • Justification: At the 3+ year horizon, sustained earnings growth, continued margin management, and dividend support could push valuations higher, though debt leverage remains a risk factor.
  • Key drivers:
    • Pipeline value realization: Success in development programs and potential new products.
    • Cash generation and capital returns: Ongoing buybacks/dividends supporting shareholder value.
    • Macro and industry tailwinds: Biotech/pharma pricing dynamics and healthcare demand.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major risks
    • High debt load relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~756) raises financing and leverage risk if interest costs rise or earnings slow.
    • EPS revisions show downward pressure in several periods, which could cap near-term upside.
    • Pharmaceutical pricing and payer pressure, clinical trial risk, and pipeline failures are inherent industry risks.
  • Key opportunities
    • Strong gross and operating margins combined with a healthy yield provide downside protection and income potential.
    • Forward-looking valuation is attractive (forward P/E ~14.3x), offering downside protection if earnings conditions stabilize or improve.
    • Dividend policy creates a stable income stream and can support valuation in risk-off environments.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale:
    • The stock sits near the median price target with a modest upside-to-downside balance. The current price of 295.43 is above the 50-day moving average, and the MACD and RSI indicate constructive near-term momentum. However, the elevated debt-to-equity ratio and the downward pressure from EPS revisions in recent periods introduce meaningful execution risk.
    • The distribution of analyst targets shows a wide range (180–405), indicating a bifurcated risk/reward profile. The median target (312.50) implies a modest upside, while the high target implies substantial upside, contingent on favorable earnings trajectories and pipeline milestones.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months)
    • Base-case: approximately 6–9% upside to the median target (~312.50) if momentum persists and revision drift stabilizes.
    • Upside scenario: up to ~37% to the high target (405) if positive earnings revisions, pipeline progress, and macro conditions converge.
    • Downside scenario: potential ~-39% toward the low target (180) if earnings disappoint or leverage costs rise materially and market sentiment shifts.

Tables (Selected Data)

  • Valuation and Metrics | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Current price | 295.43 | | Market cap | 159.05B | | Enterprise value | 206.79B | | Trailing P/E | 24.16 | | Forward P/E | 14.29 | | Price to book | 21.41 | | ROE | 99.14% | | ROA | 7.51% | | Profit margin | 18.96% | | Gross margin | 69.36% | | Operating margin | 32.73% | | Debt to equity | 756.65 | | Total cash | 8.03B | | Total debt | 56.20B | | Dividend yield | 3.23% | | Beta | 0.48 |
  • Analyst Targets | Current price | 295.43 | | Analysts | 26 | | Target Low | 180.00 | | Target Median | 312.50 | | Target High | 405.00 | | Target Mean | 311.65 |
  • Earnings Snapshot (latest quarter) | Quarter End | 2025-06-30 | | Total Revenue | 9.179B | | Operating Revenue | 8.771B | | EBITDA | 3.603B | | EBIT | 2.262B | | Net Income (continuing ops) | 1.432B | | Diluted EPS | 2.65 | | Basic EPS | 2.66 |
  • EPS Trends (selected) | Period | Current | 7 days ago | 30 days ago | 60 days ago | 90 days ago | | 0q | 5.02598 | 5.02472 | 5.02472 | 5.12938 | 5.3936 | | +1q | 5.13002 | 5.12159 | 5.12159 | 5.19278 | 5.31504 | | 0y | 21.08785 | 21.07976 | 21.06676 | 21.03909 | 20.83655 | | +1y | 21.60472 | 21.59813 | 21.61475 | 21.56198 | 21.44824 |
  • EPS Revisions (period cross-sections) | Period | Up Last 7d | Up Last 30d | Down Last 30d | Down Last 7d | | 0q | 0 | 2 | 19 | 2 | | +1q | 1 | 3 | 18 | 1 | | 0y | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | | +1y | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
  • Technical Indicators (latest) | Indicator | Value | | 50-day MA | 286.3 | | RSI (14) | 59.5 | | MACD | 3.2 (vs Signal 1.2) |

Notes on interpretation

  • The numbers presented reflect the data you supplied. Some items (e.g., ROE at ~99% and the large debt-to-equity ratio) are unusually high for a large-cap biotechnology name and should be interpreted within the exact balance-sheet context you provided; real-world interpretation would require reconciling accounting conventions and the equity base.
  • The price target range implies a relatively favorable risk/reward, but downside risk is non-negligible given the leverage and the EPS revisions trend. A cautious, data-driven approach is prudent.

Would you like me to add scenario-based charts (e.g., a probability-weighted upside/downside model) or incorporate any additional data sources (e.g., recent conference call notes or pipeline developments) to refine the price target analysis further?

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