Amgen Inc. Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Amgen Inc. (AMGN).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Amgen Inc. (AMGN).
Below is a comprehensive AMGN analysis with the requested horizontal price-target trendlines drawn and a detailed price-target framework. All data references are from the inputs you provided (as of 2025-10-03).
Note on the trendlines
- Low Target: 180.00 (green) drawn across today’s chart and extended 30 days into the future
- Median Target: 312.50 (blue) drawn across today’s chart and extended 30 days into the future
- High Target: 405.00 (red) drawn across today’s chart and extended 30 days into the future
- For both High/Median/Low, the line endpoints are set from 2025-10-03 to 2025-11-02
Price levels drawn
- Low Target (AMGN, 180): from 2025-10-03 to 2025-11-02
- Median Target (AMGN, 312.50): from 2025-10-03 to 2025-11-02
- High Target (AMGN, 405): from 2025-10-03 to 2025-11-02
Executive Summary
- AMGN trades at roughly $297.40 with a forward-looking value proposition anchored by a strong profitability profile and robust cash generation. The stock’s near-term price target spectrum shows meaningful upside potential in the consensus view (median target ≈ $312.50) but also notable downside risk implied by a low target of $180.00.
- The stock sits above the 50-day moving average and shows bullish momentum signals from MACD and a high but non-extreme RSI, suggesting room for a continuation of the near-term rally if headline catalysts materialize. However, a large portion of the downside risk in revisions and high leverage in the balance sheet warrants a cautious stance.
Key metrics snapshot (selected)
- Current price: 297.40
- Forward P/E: 14.39
- Trailing P/E: 24.30
- Price-to-Book: 21.55
- Market cap: 160.11B; Enterprise value: 208.28B
- Dividend yield: 3.19% (5-year avg: 3.06%)
- ROE: ~99.14%; ROA: ~7.51%
- Debt: Cash ≈ 8.03B; Debt ≈ 56.20B; Debt/Equity ≈ 756.65
- 50-day MA (latest): ~287.0 (range around late Sept/early Oct)
- RSI (14): ~67.2 (near overbought territory but not extreme)
- MACD: Positive (MACD ~0.6 versus Signal ~-1.7)
Table: Key metrics (selected figures)
- Note: All values are from your provided data
| Metric | Value | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | 297.40 | Near-term strength |
| Market cap | 160,108,806,144 | Large-cap profile |
| Enterprise value | 208,284,811,264 | Adjusted for cash & debt |
| Trailing P/E | 24.30 | Higher than forward multiple; cycle/peers dependent |
| Forward P/E | 14.39 | Reflects forward earnings expectations |
| P/B | 21.55 | High vs. tangible book; reflects growth premium |
| ROE | 99.14% | Very high; check capital efficiency/one-offs |
| ROA | 7.51% | Healthy asset utilization |
| Net profit margin | 18.96% | Robust profitability |
| Gross margin | 69.36% | Very high gross profitability |
| Operating margin | 32.73% | Strong operating efficiency |
| Debt/Equity | 756.65% | Very high leverage; warrants risk consideration |
| Total cash | 8.03B | Modest cash cushion vs. debt load |
| Total debt | 56.20B | Substantial leverage load |
| Dividend yield | 3.19% | Attractive yield, potential uplift from payout policy |
| 5-year avg dividend yield | 3.06% | Dividend track record supportive |
| Beta | 0.48 | Low relative volatility vs. market |
Analyst price targets (consensus)
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | 297.40 |
| Target low | 180.00 |
| Target median | 312.50 |
| Target high | 405.00 |
| Target mean | 311.65 |
| Number of analysts | 26 |
Recent Earnings Summary (selected)
- Latest quarter (2025-06-30) highlights:
- Total revenue: 9.179B
- Net income (continuing ops): 1.432B
- EBITDA: 3.603B
- Operating income: 2.656B
- Gross profit: 6.168B
- Diluted EPS: 2.65
- Prior quarters show fluctuation in reported earnings, with Diluted EPS ranging from ~1.16 in 2024-12-31 to 5.22 in 2024-09-30. This variance is heavily influenced by how unusual tax items and non-operating items are treated in quarterly reporting.
Table: Selected earnings indicators (quarter-end)
| Quarter End | Total Revenue (USD B) | Net Income (USD B) | Diluted EPS | Basic EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 9.18 | 1.43 | 2.65 | 2.66 |
| 2025-03-31 | 8.15 | 1.73 | 3.20 | 3.22 |
| 2024-12-31 | 8.51 | 0.63 | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| 2024-09-30 | 8.50 | 2.83 | 5.22 | 5.27 |
| 2024-06-30 | 8.39 | 0.75 | 1.38 | 1.39 |
EPS Trend
- Trailing and forward EPS pattern as per the provided data:
- 0q (current): ~5.02; 7 days ago: 5.02; 30 days ago: 5.05; 60 days ago: 5.39; 90 days ago: 5.38
- +1q: ~5.12; 7d/30d trend similar around mid-5s
- 0y (TTM): ~21.08; 0y 7d: ~21.08; 60/90 days around 20.88-21.49
- +1y: ~21.60; 21.60 appears as a forward-looking annualized figure
- Interpretation: The EPS trend shows a strong annualized base (TTM around 21.1–21.6) with near-term quarterly EPS in the 5.0–5.2 range, consistent with Amgen’s profitable core operations, albeit quarterly variability exists due to item normalization in reported figures.
EPS Revisions
| Period | Up (last7d) | Up (last30d) | Down (last30d) | Down (last7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 0 | 2 | 19 | 2 |
| +1q | 1 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| 0y | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| +1y | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
- Interpretation: The revisions indicate a heavier tilt toward downgrades in the last 30 days, especially for the 0q and 0y periods, suggesting more caution from analysts on near-term earnings, even as some longer-range upgrades remain limited.
Technical indicators (last 60 days)
- 50-day moving average (latest): around 287.0–287.2; current price (297.4) sits about 10 points above the MA, a bullish near-term signal.
- RSI (14): 67.2 (as of 2025-10-02), indicating strong momentum but not extreme overbought levels.
- MACD (12,26,9): Net positive with MACD around 0.6 and a negative signal around -1.7 in the most recent data, suggesting positive momentum with room to strengthen.
Detailed price target analysis (short, mid, long-term)
-
Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: Median 312.50 (range 180.00 - 405.00 across consensus)
- Justification: The median target sits above today’s price, supported by a robust profitability profile, improving EPS trajectory, and continued cash generation. A drawdown risk exists if near-term revisions trend lower and if macro headwinds intensify. Catalysts include quarterly results, pipeline progress, and potential strategic updates.
- Key drivers:
- Consistent profitability and margin resilience (gross ~69.4%, operating ~32.7%)
- Forward P/E around 14.4 suggests some valuation discipline but room for multiple expansion if growth re-accelerates
- Dividend support at ~3.2% enhances total-return potential
- Upside/Downside: If sentiment remains constructive, the stock could test the median target with a potential upside of roughly 5% from 297.4 to 312.5. A significant downside risk exists toward the low target if revisions trend materially negative or if leverage concerns weigh on multiples.
-
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: Range anchored by Median 312.50 and High 405.00
- Justification: A 12-month horizon could see multiple-period earnings strength and expansion to a higher multiple if pipeline successes materialize (new approvals, successful trial readouts, and favorable label expansions). The high target represents a potential upside scenario where both EPS growth and multiple expansion align.
- Key drivers:
- Sustained revenue growth and margin stability
- Potential approvals or favorable outcomes in key programs
- Dividend durability and potential yield-driven support
- Upside/Downside: If the stock appreciates toward 405, the upside from today would be about 36% (assuming AMGN reaches 405). Downside risks remain if earnings revisions remain negative and if leverage concerns increase cost of capital.
-
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: Scenario-based ranges, informed by forward multiples and EPS trajectory
- Base-case assumption: Forward EPS around mid-20s (e.g., ~22–23) with stable cash generation and a modest multiple expansion (18–20x) as confidence in long-term growth solidifies.
- Conservative scenario (16x forward EPS): 22 × 16 ≈ 352
- Moderate scenario (18x forward EPS): 22 × 18 ≈ 396
- Aggressive scenario (20x forward EPS): 22 × 20 ≈ 440
- Key drivers:
- Pipeline progress in oncology, cardiovascular, or other modalities
- Benefit from efficiency gains and cost controls sustaining margins
- Potential normalization of leverage and improved balance-sheet flexibility
- Macro/biotech investment environment and peer multiples
- Upside/Downside: A 3+ year bull case could push the price beyond the high target if EPS compounds and the market assigns meaningful multiple expansion to defensible pharma cash flows. A bear-case would be a stagnation in pipeline progress or a risk-off backdrop compressing multiples.
Table: Price targets and potential total-return scenarios
| Horizon | Target Range (Low–High) | Median Target | Implied upside vs current (approx.) | Key drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months (short) | 180 – 405 | 312.50 | ~5% to +5% (312.5 vs 297.4) | Near-term earnings, momentum, macro catalyst risk |
| 12 months (mid) | 180 – 405 | 312.50 | ~5% to +36% (to 405) | Pipeline progress, multiple expansion potential |
| 3+ years (long) | 352 – 440 (illustrative) | 396 (illustrative) | 34% – 50%+ (depending on multiple) | Sustained EPS growth, leverage normalization, cash flows, new approvals |
Notes on long-term targets
- The provided High Target (405) is a plausible near-to-mid-term upside scenario depending on pipeline progress and valuation re-rating.
- For 3+ years, a disciplined approach uses forward EPS assumptions and multiple ranges (16x–20x) to illustrate potential price paths. Because long-term outcomes depend on multiple factors (clinical outcomes, competitive dynamics, regulatory environment, and capital allocation), the long-term targets above are scenario-based rather than guaranteed.
Key risks and opportunities
- Risks
- Leverage: Debt-to-equity is very high in the provided data; this can pressure ROIC and capex flexibility if interest costs rise or cash generation underperforms.
- EPS revisions skew: A significant tilt toward downgrades in the last 30 days suggests near-term earnings uncertainty; macro headwinds or product-cycle risks could amplify this.
- Valuation: Forward P/E of 14.39 is reasonable, but the high P/B ratio indicates a premium to book, which can be sensitive to growth and risk revisions.
- Regulatory/competitive risk: Biotech/pharma pipelines are inherently cyclic with trial outcomes and label expansions driving volatility.
- Opportunities
- Margin quality: Gross and operating margins are strong, supporting durable profitability even with moderate top-line growth.
- Dividends: A ~3.2% yield adds total-return ballast in a volatile market.
- Defensive profile: Amgen’s cash-generative business offers downside protection relative to more cyclic equities.
Analyst consensus and catalysts
- Consensus targets show a wide range (Low 180, Median 312.50, High 405) with 26 analysts covering the stock.
- Potential catalysts:
- Positive trial readouts or favorable regulatory decisions
- Durable margin expansion or cost-control initiatives
- Strategic commentary on pipeline prioritization or potential acquisitions
- Dividend policy updates or share repurchase activity
Investment recommendation
- Rating: HOLD (with above-market upside potential if targets are realized)
- Time horizon: 12–24 months
- Expected return potential:
- Base-case via median target (~312.50): roughly 5–6% upside plus ~3.2% dividend yield, yielding ~8–9% total potential in a stable scenario
- Upside to high target (405): ~36% price appreciation plus dividend yield; total return potentially in the high teens
- Rationale:
- The stock is positioned with solid profitability and cash generation, but near-term earnings revisions have shown more downgrades than upgrades, introducing downside risk if earnings momentum deteriorates.
- The modest upside to the median target supports a cautious stance; however, a favorable clinical and regulatory backdrop could unlock a larger upside via multiple expansion and pipeline progress.
- Given leverage considerations and the breadth of analyst expectations, a Hold with selective buy-on-dip opportunities appears prudent.
Earnings quality and narrative to monitor
- Revenue and profit growth remain robust, with high gross margins and solid operating margins.
- EPS trend shows a multi-quarter cycle with variability in reported GAAP figures; normalization toward the higher end of the EPS trend would support multiple expansion.
- EPS revisions have shown a tilt toward downgrades in the near term, which is a watchpoint for sentiment and valuation discipline.
Liquidity and financial health commentary
- Cash generation appears strong, but the debt burden is nontrivial. Monitor free cash flow generation and continued dividend coverage.
- With a forward multiple around 14.4x and a growth-driven thesis, the stock could re-rate if cash flows remain robust and leverage risk remains manageable.
Appendix: Charted trendlines
- Low Target: 180 (green) – 2025-10-03 to 2025-11-02
- Median Target: 312.50 (blue) – 2025-10-03 to 2025-11-02
- High Target: 405 (red) – 2025-10-03 to 2025-11-02
If you’d like, I can tailor a scenario-based sensitivity table (e.g., price targets at different forward EPS growth rates, or different multiple scenarios) to further illustrate potential paths for AMGN under varying assumptions.