Apple Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Apple Inc. (AAPL).

Back to Analysis Hub

Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Apple Inc. (AAPL).

Below is a comprehensive Apple Inc. (AAPL) analysis with the requested horizontal trendlines drawn and a structured, data-driven price targets discussion.

Drawing update (executed)

  • Low Target (175): Green line drawn, extending from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
  • Median Target (245): Blue line drawn, extending from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
  • High Target (310): Red line drawn, extending from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: Apple remains a dominant ecosystem player with a diversified revenue base (devices, services, wearables, and near-term AI-driven opportunities). The stock trades at a premium multiple, reflecting durable profitability and strong cash flow generation, but near-term momentum will hinge on demand for high-end hardware, services growth, and any margin progression in a high-capex environment.
  • Near-term price action: The stock trades around the mid-250s with a modest upside implied by the consensus target mean (~248) and the median (~245). The current price sits above key longer-term support levels (50-day MA indication) but near-term price action could be guided by demand for flagship devices, Services expansion, and margins trajectory.
  • Key volatility drivers: Macro conditions, consumer demand cycles for iPhone/product refreshes, Services monetization pace, and potential shifts in buyback/dividend policy.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and scale
    • Current price: 254.04
    • Market cap: ~3.77T
    • Enterprise value: ~3.88T
    • Trailing P/E: 38.61
    • Forward P/E: 30.57
    • Price to Book: 57.33
    • PEG ratio: not provided
    • Beta: 1.09
  • Profitability and efficiency
    • Net profit margin: ~24.3%
    • Gross margin: ~46.68%
    • Operating margin: ~30.0%
    • Return on equity (reported): ~149.8% (1.49814)
    • Return on assets: ~24.5%
  • Balance sheet and liquidity
    • Total cash: ~$55.37B
    • Total debt: ~$101.70B
    • Debt-to-equity: ~154.5
  • Cash return and income
    • Dividend yield: 0.40% (five-year average ~0.54%)
    • Cash generation remains robust, though leverage elevated by buyback activity in the context of a large global balance sheet.
  • Takeaway: Apple trades at a rich multiple, reflecting robustness of earnings quality and cash returns, but the high P/B and leverage underscore sensitivity to growth and margin trajectory amid macro headwinds. The forward multiple (~30.6x) implies modest multiple expansion risk if growth decelerates.

Analyst Price Targets

  • Current price: 254.04
  • Number of analysts: 41
  • Target High / Low / Median / Mean:
    • High: 310
    • Low: 175
    • Median: 245
    • Mean: 248.17
  • Interpretation: The distribution suggests a wide range of outcomes, with most targets clustered near the mid- to high-200s. The mean target (~248) is slightly below current price, indicating modest near-term upside risk if the stock remains range-bound, while the high target (~310) implies meaningful upside potential if the next cycle of hardware, services, and margin expansion aligns with expectations.

Recent Earnings Summary (Selected Highlights)

  • Periods and key figures (Total Revenue, Net Income, Diluted EPS, Normalized EBITDA)
    • 2025-06-30: Revenue 94.04B; Net Income 23.43B; Diluted EPS 1.57; Normalized EBITDA 31.03B
    • 2025-03-31: Revenue 95.36B; Net Income 24.78B; Diluted EPS 1.65; Normalized EBITDA 32.25B
    • 2024-12-31: Revenue 124.30B; Net Income 36.33B; Diluted EPS 2.40; Normalized EBITDA 45.91B
    • 2024-09-30: Revenue 94.93B; Net Income 14.74B; Diluted EPS 0.97; Normalized EBITDA 32.50B
    • 2024-06-30: Revenue 85.78B; Net Income 21.45B; Diluted EPS 1.40; Normalized EBITDA 28.20B
  • Observations:
    • A sharp revenue spike is seen in 2024-12-31 driven by non-recurring factors, product cycles, or mix shifts; subsequent quarters show normalization with EBITDA around 28–32B and net income in the mid-to-high 20s billions.
    • Diluted EPS has shown volatility across periods, though multi-quarter normalization is visible in mid-2025, with EPS trending in the 1.5–2.0 range for quarterly figures and higher on a trailing/big-yr basis.
  • Takeaway: Earnings volatility historically reflects product cycles, mix shifts toward Services, and macro demand dynamics. The normalization trend into mid-2025 is consistent with a durable earnings power, but the magnitude of earnings swings remains a consideration for forward-looking modeling.

EPS Trend (Past and Forward-looking)

  • Current trailing EPS (0q): 1.7553
  • Next-quarter ( +1q): 2.4819
  • 0-year (trailing 4 quarters): 7.3699
  • +1-year (forward 4 quarters): 7.9958 Interpretation:
  • Near-term earnings (quarterly): Expect a step-up into next quarter, followed by a comp within a multi-quarter cycle. The implied annualized EPS path remains constructive, albeit with cadence tied to product cycles and Services growth.
  • Longer horizon (1-year forward): The +1y EPS of ~7.996 suggests a resilient profitability trajectory if margins hold and Services scale continues.
  • Note: These values are directional and depend on mix, cost control, and ASP/mix leverage in the Services segment.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q (most recent): Up revisions = 1; Up Last 30d = 4; Down Last 30d = 2; Down Last 7d = 1
  • +1q: Up Last 7d = 1; Up Last 30d = 4; Down Last 30d = 2; Down Last 7d = 0
  • 0y: Up Last 7d = 1; Up Last 30d = 5; Down Last 30d = 2; Down Last 7d = 0
  • +1y: Up Last 7d = 2; Up Last 30d = 7; Down Last 30d = 2; Down Last 7d = 0 Interpretation:
  • Net revisions show a tilt toward upgrades across multiple horizons, with stronger upgrade activity in the longer horizon (+1y). This supports a constructive view on earnings trajectory, particularly if Services and hardware demand maintain momentum.

Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)

  • Price and trend context
    • Latest price: 254.04 (2025-10-10)
    • 50-day Moving Average (latest): 236.2
    • Price vs. 50-day MA: Price ≈ 17.8 above the 50-day MA, signaling bullish trend bias and positive short-to-medium-term momentum
    • RSI (14) latest: 63.3 (mid-range, leaning bullish but not overbought)
    • MACD (12,26,9) latest: MACD ≈ 6.3, Signal ≈ 6.8 (slightly negative MACD crossover tension; price action remains above the zero line, implying bullish bias but with some momentum cooldown)
  • Implications:
    • The price is above the 50-day MA, consistent with a still-bullish intermediate-term trajectory.
    • RSI around 63 suggests room to run before overbought territory; however, MACD proximity to signal indicates watchful for any momentum shift.
  • Key levels:
    • Lower line (green) at 175 indicates a strong downside risk in a bear scenario, but current price action suggests the market is pricing a higher-than-275 level if the growth catalysts play out.
    • Middle line (blue) at 245 aligns with the brokered median target and the market’s immediate valuation
    • Upper line (red) at 310 corresponds to the high target and potential upside if demand remains robust.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 254.04
  • Coverage: 41 analysts
  • Targets:
    • Low: 175
    • Median: 245
    • High: 310
    • Mean: 248.17
  • Interpretation:
    • The distribution shows a wide range of expectations, with a central tendency near 245–248. The high target of 310 represents meaningful optionality if external drivers (e.g., Services growth, AI-enabled products, or margin expansion) materialize. The close-to-current median suggests a slight near-term overhang if the stock remains around current levels.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months): Target around 248 (analyst mean/consensus)
    • Justification: Near-term catalysts include continued Services monetization, potential hardware refresh cycles, and favorable buyback execution. Risks include macro volatility and cyclicality in device demand.
    • Key drivers: iPhone and Services demand stabilization, upside from Services growth, global macro backdrop, and potential margin stability.
  • Mid-Term (12 months): Target around 270–290 (midpoint ~275)
    • Justification: If Services scale accelerates and hardware margins stabilize or improve, multiple expansion could drive price toward the upper end of the consensus framework, with potential to approach the high target if execution beats expectations.
    • Key drivers: Services revenue growth trajectory, ASP uplift, potential improvement in gross/margins, and ongoing buyback/ capital returns.
  • Long-Term (3+ years): Target at the High endpoint 310 (or higher if sustained)
    • Justification: Structural growth in Services, continued ecosystem lock-in, AI/ML-enhanced product experiences, and an expanding installed base could sustain earnings growth and justify a higher multiple over multi-year horizons.
    • Key drivers: Services mix expansion, product ecosystem resilience, operating leverage on scale, and favorable capital returns. Risks include competitive pressure, supply chain disruptions, and macro shocks.
  • Summary table:
    • Target snapshots (current vs. targets)
      • Current price: 254.04
      • Low target: 175
      • Median target: 245
      • High target: 310
      • Mean target: 248.17
    • Implied 3-month / 12-month / 3+ year ranges
      • 3 months: ~248 (slight downside vs current baseline)
      • 12 months: ~275 (modest upside)
      • 3+ years: ~310 (notable upside at the high end)
  • Using the horizontal trendlines:
    • The 175 (green) line represents a lower-bound downside scenario (support/resistance framework) if a downside scenario materializes, but the current trendline from the 50-day MA and RSI suggests improving price action rather than breakdown.
    • The 245 (blue) line aligns with the median analyst target, providing a central anchor for near-term valuation.
    • The 310 (red) line marks the high-end potential the market has priced as a possibility under strong growth in Services and margin expansion.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major risks
    • Demand volatility for flagship devices in a saturated smartphone market
    • Margin compression due to supply chain costs or FX headwinds
    • CIO/Corporate spending and macroeconomic pressures impacting consumer demand
    • Regulatory or geopolitical risk affecting global supply chains
  • Key opportunities
    • Services revenue acceleration: App Store, Services, and wearables
    • AI-enabled enhancements and ecosystem synergy across devices
    • Buyback activity and capital return support
    • Potential expansions in new markets and segments (health, AR/VR, enterprise)
  • Net takeaway: The stock offers upside with a multi-horizon horizon if Services and margin trajectory hold, but near-term returns depend on macro resilience and product cycle momentum.

Investment Recommendation

  • Stance: Hold
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential: Approximately 5–15% upside to the 12–24 month target range (with potential for higher upside toward 310 if growth drivers exceed expectations)
  • Rationale: The stock is trading at a premium multiple reflecting durable profitability but faces limited near-term upside given the current median target. The upside is contingent on services growth, margin stability, and continued demand for services-enabled devices. Downside risk exists if consumer demand weakens or if competition intensifies.

Appendix: Tables with Key Data

  • Key Metrics (as provided) | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Current Price | 254.04 | | Market Cap | 3.770052509696T | | Enterprise Value | 3.876037066752T | | Trailing P/E | 38.607903 | | Forward P/E | 30.570395 | | PEG Ratio | N/A | | Price to Book | 57.332428 | | ROE | 1.49814 (≈149.8%) | | ROA | 0.24545999 (≈24.5%) | | Profit Margin | 0.24295999 (≈24.3%) | | Gross Margin | 0.46678 (≈46.7%) | | Operating Margin | 0.29990998 (≈29.99%) | | Debt to Equity | 154.486 | | Total Cash | 55.37B | | Total Debt | 101.70B | | Dividend Yield | 0.4% | | Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield | 0.54% | | Beta | 1.094 |

  • Analyst Price Targets | Item | Value | |---|---| | Current Price | 254.04 | | Number of Analysts | 41 | | Target High | 310.0 | | Target Low | 175.0 | | Target Median | 245.0 | | Target Mean | 248.17128 |

  • Earnings Summary (Selected Periods) | Period | Total Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Normalized EBITDA | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2025-06-30 | 94.04B | 23.43B | 1.57 | 31.03B | | 2025-03-31 | 95.36B | 24.78B | 1.65 | 32.25B | | 2024-12-31 | 124.30B | 36.33B | 2.40 | 45.91B | | 2024-09-30 | 94.93B | 14.74B | 0.97 | 32.50B | | 2024-06-30 | 85.78B | 21.45B | 1.40 | 28.20B |

  • EPS Trend | Period | EPS (USD) | |---|---:| | Current | 1.75532 | | +1q | 2.48185 | | 0y | 7.36986 | | +1y | 7.99579 |

  • EPS Revisions (Period vs. Up/Down counts) | Period | Up Last 7d | Up Last 30d | Down Last 30d | Down Last 7d | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | | +1q | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | | 0y | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | | +1y | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 |

  • Technical Indicators (Last 60 Days) | Indicator | Latest Value | |---|---:| | 50-Day MA | 236.2 (latest on 2025-10-09) | | RSI (14) | 63.3 (latest on 2025-10-09) | | MACD (12,26,9) | MACD 6.3; Signal 6.8 (latest on 2025-10-09) |

Notes and caveats

  • All data reflect the inputs provided and should be updated with fresh quarterly results and macro changes as available.
  • Price targets are opinion-based estimates from analysts and indicative targets; actual performance may vary due to market conditions and company-specific developments.
  • The horizontal trendlines drawn above use today’s date (2025-10-10) and extend 30 days forward to 2025-11-09. If you want to extend further or adjust the time window, I can update the lines accordingly.

Would you like me to add a sensitivity analysis (e.g., how price targets shift with different EPS growth assumptions or a scenario tree for Services growth vs. hardware mix) or adjust the long-term target to reflect alternative delivery assumptions?

Chart is loading...